Today we see five states hold the presidential primaries, the so-called “Acela Primary” as most of the states up for grabs fall along Amtrak’s Acela train line between Washington, D.C., and Connecticut, and with Hillary comfortable, and Trump looking for a sweep as he surges on the back of yet another failed “stop-trump” attempt, there should be no real surprises when polls close this evening.
One thing to keep an eye on is how Trump performs in Pennsylvania, which as we noted earlier, will be an indication of how well his campaign’s ground game is. He will need to be able to sway delegates his way if necessary during the convention, and this could be an early indicator for how well he’ll be able to do that. Also on the topic of Trump, the question is not if he will win tonight’s 5 states but whether he will be able to get above 50% of the vote in them (recent polls suggest it may be a stretch).
Here is a quick update on where the candidates stand heading into this evening.
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Politico gives us ten key places to watch as results start to come in this evening.
Connecticut
Greenwich: If Kasich or Cruz can steal one of the state’s five congressional districts, it will likely be the affluent 4th District — where the Republican vote is anchored by wealthy and educated residents of Greenwich, Stamford and Bridgeport. In 2012, Mitt Romney ran about 10 points better in the 4th District than he did statewide.
New Haven: More votes came from New Haven than any other town in the 2008 Democratic primary, and it’s critical to Clinton’s effort to hold off Sanders — despite the fact she lost it badly four years ago.
In 2008, Barack Obama defeated Clinton by a more than two-to-one margin in New Haven, 66 percent to 32 percent — far greater than Obama’s 4-point margin of victory statewide.
New Haven is both a college town — it’s home to prestigious Yale University — and easily the state’s most-diverse city. Sanders, who has won more than 70 percent of the under-30 vote thus far, will likely clean up with college students. He attracted an estimated crowd of 10,000 to a Sunday night rally there.
But if Clinton can turn out minority voters — fewer than one-in-three New Haven residents was non-Hispanic white, according to the 2010 Census — she can build a coalition of older whites and minority voters to put her over the top.
Delaware
New Castle County: By far the largest of Delaware’s three counties, New Castle accounted for 64 percent of the vote in the 2008 Democratic primary, and 47 percent in the 2012 Republican primary.
But New Castle is also split between overwhelmingly Democratic Wilmington, the state’s largest city, and the rest of the county. How Democratic is Wilmington? The city was 13 percent of the overall statewide electorate in the 2008 Democratic primary, but only 2 percent of the 2012 Republican primary.
Wilmington is majority-black: Obama beat Clinton there in 2008, 75 percent to 22 percent. But the race was much closer in the rest of New Castle County, with Obama only ahead by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent.
The state is winner-take-all on the Republican side — and while nearly half the vote will come from New Castle County, it functions differently from the rest of the state.
Mitt Romney won Delaware with 56 percent of the vote in 2012 — capturing 60 percent of the New Castle vote, but only 50 percent in Kent County and 55 percent in Sussex County.
Maryland
Baltimore city: Majority-black Baltimore city should be a boon for Clinton. Obama beat Clinton by a three-to-one margin in Baltimore City in 2008, but Clinton’s advantage among African-Americans against Sanders project well for her here.
Clinton could also benefit from a competitive mayoral primary also on the ballot on Tuesday, which could goose turnout in Baltimore city compared to some more suburban precincts.
Baltimore County: In the Republican primary — where delegates are allocated winner-take-all to the victor in each congressional district — Maryland’s tortuous congressional map makes it difficult to isolate specific regions. The district lines, which were drawn by Democrats to ensure a 7-to-1 party advantage in the congressional delegation, snake through communities in an effort to separate Republicans and keep them from having too much influence in a number of districts.
But Baltimore County is crucial for the GOP candidates. It touches two of the three districts anti-Trump forces think are the best chances to defeat the real-estate tycoon: the 3rd and 7th districts.
The majority-black 7th District is overwhelmingly Democratic and will be a key district for Clinton in her primary. But a small number of Republicans will also vote there, and both Cruz and Kasich are hopeful they can sneak ahead of Trump there.
The 3rd District snakes from the Baltimore Inner Harbor all the way down to Annapolis, but also includes a good chunk of Baltimore County. Anti-Trump groups are seeking to boost the more moderate Kasich there.
Montgomery County: The populous, liberal suburbs north and west of D.C. represent Sanders’ best chance to cut into Clinton’s big lead in the state. Obama carried Montgomery in 2008 by 12 points, a much smaller margin than his 25-point statewide edge.
Like in Baltimore with the mayoral race, a number of local contests could also boost turnout, including an expensive, closely fought primary for Congress in the 8th District, which includes most of Montgomery County’s immediate D.C. suburbs.
Pennsylvania
Allegheny County: Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and the immediate suburbs, holds more GOP voters than any other county in the state.
Pennsylvania’s “loophole primary” makes the focus on specific districts for Republicans trickier, but Allegheny is still a key battleground. Kasich was born and raised in the county, in McKees Rocks. Trump visited Pittsburgh earlier this month.
The county includes all or part of three different congressional districts: the 12th, 14th and 18th.
On the Democratic side, Allegheny is battleground territory: Clinton won it by almost nine points in 2008. A similar performance there on Tuesday could close the door on Sanders’ underdog bid at a statewide victory.
Lackawanna County: This is Clinton territory: She won Lackawanna by a yawning margin in 2008, 74 percent to 26 percent.
Clinton claims Scranton roots that served her well eight years ago. And it’s no surprise one of her closing events in the state was in Dunmore, just outside Scranton, last Friday. (Her husband held an event earlier this month at Scranton High School.)
These are mostly white voters who stuck with Clinton eight years ago. The question is whether they will still serve as a firewall for her on Tuesday, or jump to Sanders, as a number of white Democrats have in other states.
Philadelphia: Clinton managed to win statewide eight years ago despite losing Philadelphia by nearly a two-to-one margin, 65 percent to 35 percent.
This time around, the African-American base in Philadelphia should be strong for Clinton. But the city is also a big college town, and enhanced youth turnout could help Sanders.
Clinton has the backing of former Mayor Michael Nutter — who backed her over Obama in 2008 — and also from longtime supporter Ed Rendell, another former Philadelphia mayor and former two-term governor, who will be under pressure to reinstate his turnout machine to help the former secretary of state.
Rhode Island
Warwick: Providence, the state capital, should function much like Philadelphia but scaled down. Obama narrowly won in Providence in 2008; Sanders will need to turn out enough young voters — including students at Brown University and Providence College — to overcome Clinton’s advantages with non-white voters.
But Warwick, the state’s second-largest city, also looms large. Clinton won comfortably here eight years ago, beating Obama, 61 percent to 38 percent.
The city is mostly white, but the population leans older, which could benefit Clinton.
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And just to confirm how serious tonight’s primary race is, even Goldman has opined, as per the following note.
After a brief period of uncertainty following the Wisconsin primary earlier this month, the Republican nomination once again looks like it is Mr. Trump’s to lose, while Sec. Clinton appears to have a tight grip on her party’s nomination and could clinch it outright (including “superdelegates” in the total) before the last of the contests in June.
Trump looks very likely to win all five states; the main uncertainty at this point is whether he will win sufficient delegates to put him on track to clinch a majority of delegates prior to the Republican convention that starts July 18. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island go to the polls, with 118 Republican delegates at stake. Our expectation, based on polling in the states and each state’s primary rules, is that Mr. Trump is likely to win slightly less than 100 of the delegates in play.
Coordination between Gov. Kasich and Sen. Cruz might make a difference in Indiana, though Mr. Trump still looks like the narrow favorite there. Sen. Cruz and Gov. Kasich appear to be coordinating their campaign strategies, with Gov. Kasich shifting resources out of Indiana, and Sen. Cruz suggesting he will not focus on New Mexico or Oregon. The contest in Indiana does indeed look close — Mr. Trump leads Sen. Cruz by an average of 39% to 33% in an average of the only three polls in the state, conducted last week; Gov. Kasich is farther behind at around 19%. If enough support shifts to Sen. Cruz, it is possible that he could take the 30 delegates that Indiana will award to the statewide winner, plus a fraction of the additional 27 delegates split among the winners of the 9 congressional districts. However, “strategic voting” seems unreliable. When Sen. Rubio attempted something similar in urging his Ohio supporters to vote for Gov. Kasich, his actual vote share came in 4pp below his prior level of support, or a decline of slightly more than half. But the political and ideological differences between Sen. Cruz and Gov. Kasich are much greater than between Sen. Rubio and Gov. Kasich. Moreover, while the intent of the strategy seems clear enough, Gov. Kasich stopped short of actually instructing supporters to vote for Sen. Cruz.
Whatever the outcome in Indiana next week (May 3), Oregon and New Mexico will probably be less consequential. Although Sen. Cruz has suggested he will shift resources out of Oregon (May 17) and New Mexico (June 7), it might not make that much of a difference. These are among the few states left that allocate their delegates in proportion to the statewide result, so even if Gov. Kasich were to deny Mr. Trump a win in either state, it probably would make only a small dent in the delegate count.
There isn’t that much left on the table between today’s contests and June 7. A few other states vote in May, but these contests look unlikely to change the outlook significantly. Nebraska (May 10), Montana, and South Dakota (both June 7) look likely to award Sen. Cruz all of their combined 92 delegates. New Jersey (June 7) awards all of its 51 delegates to the statewide winner, and Mr. Trump seems to have a sizeable advantage there. West Virginia (May 10) has an unusual system that looks likely to award a substantial share of delegates to Trump while possibly also producing some unbound delegates. Washington State (May 27) is a bit of a mystery at this stage due to a lack of polls; it awards its statewide delegates proportionally so it might make slightly less of a difference in the delegate math in any case. Overall, we expect that Trump will win around half of the 199 delegates up for grabs in May, suggesting that the risks are fairly evenly balanced in next month’s contests.
The outlook in California (June 7) will quickly become a focus. Polling since the start of the month in California shows Mr. Trump averaging 46% support, well above Sen. Cruz’s 25% and Gov. Kasich’s 19%. However, while California awards 3 delegates to the winner of each congressional district (159 in total) like several other states, it awards a disproportionately small number to the statewide winner (13 delegates, which is the same number Rhode Island awards to the statewide winner, for example). This is important because even if Trump wins the majority in the state as a whole, he is apt to lose delegates to Gov. Kasich and Sen. Cruz in some congressional districts. We assume that he will win around 100 of the 172 California delegates in our illustrative delegate count (Exhibit 1) but there is obviously a good deal of uncertainty in these later races.
The outcome of the Republican nomination looks unlikely to become clear until the convention. If Trump fails to win 1237 delegates in the contests through June 7, his remaining option to secure the nomination would be to win the support of unbound delegates before or even during the convention, which starts July 18. Under the hypothetical delegate scenario illustrated in Exhibit 1 where Trump wins around 1200 of the delegates but falls short of a majority, he would need to work to gain the support of another 37 or more unbound delegates, out of around 150 total. However, a number of these delegates have already announced their support for other candidates (e.g., Sen. Cruz), leaving a smaller pool for Trump to draw from. The primary results in Pennsylvania could shed some light on this question; Pennsylvania will send 54 unbound delegates to the convention—the largest amount from any single state—and some Pennsylvania delegates have suggested they might feel obliged to support their state’s winner (though others have already announced support for a candidate regardless of the results). We would expect to see additional scrutiny of these delegates’ intentions in coming days.
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