FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the year’s nearly done but in the FX 2015 contest, we don’t yet know for sure who the winner will be.
Key Quotes
“Four currencies stand out – the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the Israeli Shekel. They’ve all gained over 3% against everything else. At the other extreme, just how rotten a year it was for emerging markets can be seen in the big losers – the newly floating/sinking Argentine peso, the Brazilian real, the South African rand and the Colombian peso are all down by more than 25% against the dollar and are even down against the rouble. Note however that if I ask my Bloomberg terminal to calculate total returns, the Argentine peso jumps from the bottom to the top of the list, and the Indian rupee too, beats the dollar on that basis. BRL, COP and ZAR however, remain firmly anchored.”
“The chart reduces this list to the G10 currencies, in trade weighted terms. If this was a race, the Swiss franc set off like a greyhound out of the traps back in January and has spent the second half of the year clinging on to top spot by the skin of its teeth. In second place currently is the dollar, which topped the league in 2014 and is going for a repeat. After that, a gap. Sterling’s fading fast on a trade-weighted basis and hasn’t been the top dog of the currency stakes since 1996. The yen and Swedish krona are both improving as the year comes to a close while NOK, NZD, EUR and AUD are all in a bunch (of mediocrity) above the Canadian dollar. Outside the G10, the CNH is down 4.4% vs the dollar in mid-table. A small move of huge significance.”
“After that kind of under-performance, it’s no wonder the Canadian dollar looms so appealing to me for next year. It’ll need oil prices to stabilise but in due course, it’s going to make some kind of recovery. I reckon it will be joined in the top half of the 2016 G10FX chase by the US dollar (again), the Swedish krona, the Japanese yen and the Norwegian krone. The bottom half of the table should see sterling, Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Euro and the Swiss franc all weaken, the last of these being the most vulnerable of all.”
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