2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Ten Thousand Tease
Since the 01-APR-2018 low, the Bitcoin market has now rallied an impressive 55% and, at the time of writing came within $10 of hitting the psychological $10,000 mark, $9990 on Bitfinex.
Quite a tease, but thus far, Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand remains! #10kNeverAgain
An overall Symmetrical Triangle formation since the since the 06-FEB-2018 low still appears to remain in play unless 11700 (Bitfinex) is exceeded; structure as follows:
—wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.
—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.
—wave-c: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to thus far with upside targets as follows (Bitfinex):
1. @9740: 61.8% of wave-b.
2. @9946: 50% of entire Bitcoin market.
3. @10571-10640: 78.6% of wave-b.
The first target has been exceeded, the second target has been met with an additional 44 points thus far; since then, the market appears to have found weakness.
Price/RSI negative divergences are appearing on multiple hour timeframes suggesting the rally is being superficially driven simply to hit the psychological 10000 mark:
BTC (Price/RSI): https://i.imgur.com/LT7wU4I.png
Exceeding the psychological 10000 mark would clear the price/RSI negative divergences and drive price towards the third aforementioned target zone.
At this point in time, taking out 9736 would indicate weakening upside momentum —a short position there would pose a 2.55% risk with a stop at 9990.
Should wave-c be complete at time of writing, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10000 level.
The converging suggest the Symmetrical ought to complete in Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci of the entire Bitcoin market.
Looking at the overall market, it appears many popular cryptocurrencies have rallied into key Fibonacci resistance areas. For example, LTC has now retraced a Fibonacci 50% of the decline from 20-FEB-2018 to 01-APR-2018.