2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Ten Thousand Tease

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Ten Thousand Tease

Bitcoin / Dollar BITFINEX:BTCUSD


2018 Cryptocurrency Crash ( Elliott Wave ): Ten Thousand Tease

Since the 01-APR-2018 low, the Bitcoin             market has now rallied an impressive 55% and, at the time of writing came within $10 of hitting the psychological $10,000 mark, $9990 on Bitfinex.

Quite a tease, but thus far, Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand remains! #10kNeverAgain

An overall Symmetrical Triangle formation since the since the 06-FEB-2018 low still appears to remain in play unless 11700 (Bitfinex) is exceeded; structure as follows:

wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

wave-c: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to thus far with upside targets as follows (Bitfinex):
1. @9740: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
2. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin             market.
3. @10571-10640: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.

The first target has been exceeded, the second target has been met with an additional 44 points thus far; since then, the market appears to have found weakness.
Price/RSI negative divergences are appearing on multiple hour timeframes suggesting the rally is being superficially driven simply to hit the psychological 10000 mark:

BTC             (Price/RSI): https://i.imgur.com/LT7wU4I.png

Exceeding the psychological 10000 mark would clear the price/RSI negative divergences and drive price towards the third aforementioned target zone.
At this point in time, taking out 9736 would indicate weakening upside momentum —a short position there would pose a 2.55% risk with a stop at 9990.
Should wave-c be complete at time of writing, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10000 level.

There are two further waves required to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern . Given the converging price action trendlines of the triangle, the following are projections for the two outstanding legs:

wave-d: Expected to decline and retrace at least a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-c towards 7200. Converging trendlines of the Symmetrical Triangle would suggest a 30% decline to approx 6750.

wave-e: The final leg of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern , and the shortest. Expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% of wave-d, rallying approx 35% towards 8750 to 9250.

The converging trendlines suggest the Symmetrical Triangle pattern ought to complete in Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin             market.

Looking at the overall market, it appears many popular cryptocurrencies have rallied into key Fibonacci resistance areas. For example, LTC has now retraced a Fibonacci 50% of the decline from 20-FEB-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:

BTC             (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/YVeTdWI.png
BTC             (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/OhwfIBl.png
BTC             (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/Uxjw3Zk.png
LTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/UCUy2LG.png