AAII Sentiment Survey Results For Frame Ended 23 September 2015
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral on the stock market for the next 6 months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership weekly. Just 1 vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting frame.
Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Update
Bullish: 32.1%, down 1.1 pts
Neutral: 39.2%, up 1.6 pts
Bearish: 28.7%, down 0.4 pts
Historical averages:
Bullish: 39.0%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 30.0%
Commentary
Optimism is below its historical average of 39.0% for a 29th week running in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, tying a 22-year record. Neutral sentiment rose to a five-week high, Pessimism fell to a 9-wk low.
Bullish sentiment
Bullish expectations that stock prices will rise over the next 6 months, declined 1.1% to 32.1%. The down move keeps Bullish sentiment below its historical average of 39.0% for the 29th straigh week. The only other time Bullish sentiment remained below 39.0% for this length of time was 2 April through 15 October 1993.
Neutral sentiment
Neutral expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next 6 months, rose 1.6% to 39.2%. Neutral sentiment was last higher on 20 August 2015 (39.9%). The historical average is 31.0%.
Bearish sentiment
Bearish expectations that stock prices will fall over the next 6 months, edged down 0.4%to 28.7%. This is the lowest level of Pessimism registered by this survey since 23 July 2015 (25.6%). The historical average is 30.0%.
Optimism about the 6-month direction of stock prices continues to be low among individual investors.
Since mid-March, less than 33% of surveyed AAII members have described themselves as bullish during most weeks. Valuations, the slow pace of economic activity and unimpressive earnings growth as well as concerns about the possibility of a decline in stock prices occurring have optimism below its historical average. Though the late-August correction has reduced valuations, all of the above concerns continue to impact individual investors’ outlook for stock prices.
This week’s special question asked AAII members (many of whom are either near or in retirement) what they thought about the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to keep interest rates unchanged, and 46% disagreed, and thought interest rates should have been increased. Slightly more than 26% agreed with the Fed, citing sluggish US or global economic growth.
Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII Journal
HeffX-LTN
Paul Ebeling, Editor
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