Market Roundup
- US Personal Spending Real MM May 0.6%, 0%-prev
- US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.247m, f/c 2.215m, 2.225m-prev
- US Markit Comp Flash PMI Jun 54.6, 56-prev
- BR Unemployment Rate May 6.7%, f/c 6.6%, 6.4%-prev, adds to Brazilian woes
- Greek creditor’s top-level talk to resume on Saturday
- BUBA’s Weidmann Eurosystem must not provide bridge financing to Greece even in anticipation of later disbursements
- Germany’s Merkel says Greek deal needed before markets open Monday (sources)
- Spain’s Rajoy says Spain willing to be flexible but Greece must respect its commitments
- IMF spokesman asked about Greece’s Jun 30 pmt says does not extend deadlines as a matter of policy
- Germany’s Roth says Germany willing to discuss UK proposals for EU reform constructively
- Hungary rates likely to be cut at next meeting if conditions allow, could cut interest rates one or two more times, by 15-30 basis points – board member
Economic Data Ahead
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade – Imports May (consensus 4.29b, previous 4.04b)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade Balance May (consensus -100.0m, previous 123.0m)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade Balance YY May (consensus -2.90b, previous -2.62b)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade – Exports May (consensus 4.27b, previous 4.17b)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan All Household Spding YY May (consensus 3.4%, previous -1.3%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan All Hhold Spending MM May (consensus 2.2%, previous -5.5%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Core Nationwide YY May (consensus 0%, previous 0.3%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Overall Nationwide May (previous 0.6%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI Core Tokyo YY Jun (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.2%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Overall Tokyo Jun (previous 0.5%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Jobs/Applicants Ratio May (consensus 1.17, previous 1.17)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Unemployment Rate May (consensus 3.3%, previous 3.3%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Positive US data, including a surprise rise in consumer spending and better-than-expected initial jobless claims failed to lift USD. Yen also lacked strength and USD/JPY was confined to a phase of consolidation. USD/JPY extended its pullback from yesterday’s peak of 124.36 and bottomed out at 123.30, but overall remains steady within its daily range. Currently the pair is trading at 123.50, down 0.26% on the day. On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 123.30 (Jun 25 low), 123.00 (psychological level) and 122.55 (Jun 22 low). On the flipside resistances line up at 123.95 (Jun 25 high), 124.36 (Jun 23 high) and 124.44 (Jun 17 high). Option expiries for Friday 26 June: 122.25 (560M), 123.50 (215M), 124.00 (835M), 124.50 (369M)
EUR/USD treading water, unmotivated around the 1.1200 handle. Eurogroup meeting to resume Saturday after today’s failure to clinch a deal between Greek authorities and the EU institutions. Currently the pair is losing 0.04% at 1.1201 with the next resistance at 1.1229 (high Jun 25) followed by 1.1288 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1292 (low Jun 19). Supports on the downside are at 1.1154 (low Jun 24), 1.1135 (low Jun 23) and finally 1.1087 (low Jun 8). Option expiries for Friday 26 June: 1.1100 (360M), 1.1200 (339M), 1.1250-55 (550M), 1.13 (705M)
AUD/USD has been better bid from the 0.7700 level of yesterday’s business and continues with a bullish bias. Greece headlines are making less of a market impact and relieves the Aussie that could be otherwise subject to risk-off outflows. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7749 with high of 0.7753 and a low of 0.7695. Immedate resistances are at 0.7758 and then 0.7778, while on the downside supports are located at 0.7648, 0.7629 and 0.7610. Option expiries for Friday 26 June: 0.7700 (307M), 0.7730 (260M), 0.7750 (268M), 0.7800 (1BLN)
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso fell to the lowest level in two weeks against the US dollar. USD/MXN today after rebounding at 15.445, rose above the 15.50 handle peaking at 15.515. Currently the pair is consolidating above the 15.450 zone that now is the immediate relevant support. The pair still holds a bullish tone in the long-term.
USD/CAD: US Dollar is posting its first daily lost in the last five days against the Canadian Dollar. The pair fell 60 pips in the last two hours, and is trading now at 1.2315. Since Wednesday’s high of 1.2420, the USD/CAD has fallen around 200 pips to actual levels. On the downside USD/CAD will find supports at 1.2290, 1.2270 and 1.2240. To the upside, resistances are at 1.2360, 1.2400 and 1.2420. Option expiries for Friday 26 June: 1.2300 (331M)
GBP/CHF on track to end at the highest in three months, above 1.4700. At the time of writing the pair trades at 1.4720/25, more than 50 pips above the level it had yesterday. GBP/CHF climbed from 1.14650 to 1.4790 but then pulled back and dropped finding support at 1.4710/20. Immediate resistance lies at 1.4760/65 (June 23 high) and then 1.4800. On the opposite direction, support levels could be located at 1.4710 and then 1.4660 and 1.4630 (daily low).
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