Some thoughts for tomorrow…
First things first… Small Caps were up again today – of course – the 14th straight day of gains and the longest streak since Feb 1996. Russell 2000 is the most overbought since 2003…7th Intraday recod high in a row… 8th record close in a row, most since 1996
The nasdaq closed red today as S&P scrambled into the green at the close…
With that silliness out of the way… As Americans give thanks for Donald Trump's wealth creation miracle, we thought some context for the last few weeks might be useful…
The US Dollar spiked today near 102.00 – and is at almost 14 year highs…
China's Yuan has crashed as the dollar soars – breaking above 6.95/$ today – 8 year lows…
Emerging Market Currencies plunged to new lows…
Gold has been monkeyhammered (jammed below $1200 today), back to 10 month lows…
And as Gold collapses, so Small Caps have soared… (do those moves look human at all? perfectly linear ramp squeeze)
As The record squeeze continues…
But while stocks have continued to soar, long-bonds have trodden water for 8 days (though 30Y did breakout to the upside briefly today)…
Even though the short-end has seen yields spike to the hghest since April 2010…
And everywhere we look relationships have broken…
Stocks and volume…
US equity factors have decoupled…
Small Caps and credit sensitivity has broken…
And Small Cap and Mega Cap Tech have decoupled…
Banks and the yield curve have snapped…
Bank stocks and bonds have no idea…
EM Bonds and Stocks…
Bond yields are above stocks…
As Yuan crashed today, Treasury yields decoupled…
Oil price and protection costs have decoupled…
US Treasury yields are notably underperforming global developed market bonds…
Gold broke below $1200 today…
As Gold/Silver rolls over from Brexit highs…
And finally, Gold and The Dow are equial YTD…
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