Market Roundup
- US Personal Consump Real MM Feb -0.1%, (previous 0.2%)
- US Personal Income MM Feb 0.4%, (consensus 0.3%, previous 0.4%)
- US Consumption, Adjusted MM Feb 0.1%, (consensus 0.2%, previous -0.2%)
- US Core PCE Price Index MM Feb 0.1%, (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.1%)
- US Core PCE Price Index YY Feb 1.4%, (previous 1.3%)
- US PCE Price Index MM Feb 0.2%, (previous -0.4%)
- US PCE Price Index YY Feb 0.3%, (previous 0.2%)
- US Pending Homes Index Feb 106.9, (previous 103.7)
- US Pending Sales Change MM Feb 3.1%, (consensus 0.4%, previous 1.2%)
- US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Mar -17.4, (previous -11.2)
- US Dallas Fed PCE Feb 2%, (previous 0.2%)
- Canada Producer Prices MM Feb 1.8%, (consensus 0.8%, previous -0.3%)
- Canada Producer Prices YY Feb -1.6%, (consensus -2.6%, previous -2.1%)
- Canada Raw Materials Prices MM Feb 6.1%, (consensus 3.5%, previous -7.8%)
- Canada Raw Materials Prices YY Feb -21.8%, (previous -21.9%)
- Brazil IGP-M Inflation Index Mar 0.98%, (consensus 0.92%, previous 0.27%)
- Germany’s Merkel Greece has some flexibility to define reforms but overall framework must make sense
- Greek reform list estimates privatization revs of EUR1.5b v 2.2b previously, proposes creating bad bank to deal w/bad loans by using EUR10.9n in bank bailout funds returned to EZ
- US Treasury official says will continue to seek that there won’t be unfair interventions in the Yuan, US willing to offer advice & help on China-led AIIB via existing Int’l institutions
- Brazil’s Levy has agenda to reinsert Brazil in Int’l trade, says govt has to build consensus around policy adjustments, more interaction b/w BNDES & capital mkts will help make investment feasible, loss of investment grade would have relatively serious consequences
- Brazil ’15 inflation f/c at 8.13 from 8.12%, GDP growth -1% from -0.83% last week
- Brazil’s Levy says adjustment aims to respond to deterioration of fiscal/internal accounts
- Brazil’s Rousseff says govt will adjust finances whole maintaining social spending
- British PM Cameron’s conservatives’ lead labour 36 vs 34% (Ashcroft poll)
Economic Data Ahead
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Building Consents Feb (previous -3.8%)
- (0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Construction Orders YY Feb (previous 27.5%)
- (0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Housing Starts YY Feb (consensus -7.1%, previous -13%)
- (2000 ET/ 0000 GMT) Australia HIA New Home Sales m/m Feb (previous 1.8%)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Private Sector Credit Feb (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Housing Credit Feb previous 0.6%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Greenback continues to pick up pace and extending the upbeat sentiment from last week. Positive readings in the US docket today gave extra legs to the USD rally. USD/JPY extends rise beyond 120.00 after rising around 30 pips in the last hour. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at fresh highs since March 23 at 120.16. The pair is likely to find resistances at 120.15 and 120.30. To the downside, supports are seen at 120.00, 119.75 and 119.60. Option expiries Tuesday 31st March: 118.00 (1BLN), 120.00 (745M), 120.50 (330M)
USD/CAD: USD/CAD is posting multi-day tops around the 1.2700 figure. US dollar remained bid on Monday, pushing USD/CAD to session highs. Slew of significant data releases ahead in the week, Canadian GDP results for the month of January will be the main highlight. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2693, up 0.66% on the day. Next resistance is at 1.2708 (high ) ahead of 1.2724 (high ) and then 1.2757 (high ). Supports on the downside lie at 1.2597 (low ), 1.2500 (psychological level) and finally 1.2468 (low ).
EUR/USD: EUR/USD vigilant on Greek developments. PM A.Tsipras is currently addressing the Greek Parliament, although there are no big announcements so far. EUR/USD is now looking to stabilize around the 1.0820 area after falling from 1.0860 earlier. EZ preliminary CPI for March will be in focus tomorrow ahead of the Feb unemployment figures. Immediate supports are at 1.0801 (low ) ahead of 1.0767 (low ) and then 1.0760 (50% of 1.0457-1.1062). Resiatances are at 1.0934 (Kijun Sen), 1.0949 (high ) and finally 1.1052 (high ). Option expiries Tuesday 31st March: 1.0700 (323M), 1.0800 (495M), 1.1000 (504M)
AUD/USD: AUD/USD is heading to fresh year lows. The pair saw 70 pips decline from 0.7700 during the American session. AUD/USD seems to have found some support at 0.7630 and is now consolidating around 0.7645. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7645, down 1.36% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7749 and low at 0.7633. Below 0.7630, it will find supports at 0.7610 and 0.7590. To the upside, resistances are at 0.7700, 0.7740 and 0.7765.
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