Market Roundup

  • US  Redbook MM w/e 1.2%, (previous 1.1%)
  • US  Redbook YY w/e 3%, (previous 2.8%)
  • US  CaseShiller 20 MM SA Jan 0.9%, (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.9%)
  • US  CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Jan 0%, (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.1%)
  • US  CaseShiller 20 YY Jan 4.6%, (consensus 4.5%, previous 4.4%)
  • US  Chicago PMI Mar 46.3, (consensus 51.5, previous 45.8)
  • US  Consumer Confidence Mar 101.3, (consensus 96, previous 98.8)
  • US  Texas Serv Sect Outlook Mar -4.6, (previous 1.7)
  • US  Dallas Fed Services Revenues Mar 10.7, (previous 13.6)
  • Canada  GDP MM Jan -0.1%, (consensus -0.2%, previous 0.3%)
  • Brazil Primary Budget Surplus Feb -2.3b, (consensus 1.500b, previous 21.063b)
  • Brazil Nominal Budget Balance Feb -58.637b, (previous 3.041b)
  • Brazil Gross Debt/GDP Ratio Feb 65.5%, (previous 60.92%)
  • Brazil Net Debt/GDP Ratio Feb 36.3%, (consensus 36.1%, previous 33.76%)
  • Fed’s Lacker Strong case for June rate hike, expects improved labor mkt conditions, wage growth in months ahead; USD gains driven by relative strength of US economy, favors ending reinvestment soon after raising rates
  • US Treasury’s Lew having AIIB co-finance projects w/existing institutions will demonstrate commitment to high standards, welcoming institutions depends on whether they complement existing institutions and commit to high standards
  • Germany’s Merkel Greece must respect commitments, there is flexibility on how reform measures are constituted
  • ECB’s Makuch we have positive impressions that QE is beginning to work alongside other programs, not concerned there may not be enough EZ securities available for QE
  • ECB’s Nouy keeping an eye on aggressive search for yield strategies
  • Brazil’s Levy weaker BRL will help expand exports,  govt needs to moderate expansion of state-run banks, govt needs to stabilize public debt to shield job market, ready to take measures to ensure tax revenues meet ’15 fiscal target
  • Units of Brazil’s OAS file for bankruptcy protection amid scandal
  • China insurance regulator to relax overseas investment rules for Chinese insurance funds
  • EU President Latvia proposes scrapping ban on prop trading at banks in EU
  • OPEC’s March oil o/p rises 560k bbls/day m/m to 30.63m, highest since Oct
  • Warren Buffet says Greek exit from EZ may not be a bad thing for the euro (CNBC)

Economic Data Ahead

  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan Big Mf Idx Q1 (consensus 14, previous 12)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI Q1 (consensus 16, previous 9)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx Q1 (consensus 17, previous 16)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan big non-mf outlook Q1 (consensus 17, previous 15)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan All Big Capex Est Q1 (consensus 0.5%, previous 8.90%)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan Small Mf Idx Q1 (consensus 3, previous 1)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI Q1 (consensus 4, previous -5)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx Q1 (consensus 0, previous -1)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan sm non-mf outlook Q1 (consensus 0, previous -4)
  • (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Tankan All Sm Capex Est Q1 (consensus -16.5%, previous -6.70%)
  • (1830 ET/ 2230 GMT) Australia AIG Manufacturing Index Mar (previous 45.4)
  • (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Building Approvals Feb (consensus -4%, previous 7.90%)
  • (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Private House Approvals Feb (previous 0.40%)
  • (2100 ET/ 0100 GMT) China NBS Non-Mfg PMI Mar (previous 53.9)
  • (2100 ET/ 0100 GMT) China NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar (consensus 49.7, previous 49.9)
  • (2145 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Mfg PMI Final Mar (previous 49.2)

Key Events Ahead 

  • No Significant Events

FX Recap

USD/JPY failed to sustain gains above the 120.00 level. The pair found resistance at a session high of 120.14 and pulled back before being contained by the 119.80 area. Over the last hours USD/JPY has been trading in a narrow range. Currently the pair is trading at 119.90, recording a 0.19% loss on the day. Immediate support levels are at 119.80, 119.40 and 119.00, while she sees resistances at 120.45, 120.80 and 121.20. Option expiries Wednesday 1st April: 119.50-55 (617M). NB – 2.6BLN 120’S EXPIRE THURSDAY

EUR/USD remains entrenched into the negative territory during the first half of the week. Lack of progress on Greek debt talks weighing on sentiment. Towards the close of the NA session the pair seems to have been stabilizing around the mid-1.0700s. Currently the pair is trading at 1.0744, down 0.80% on the day.  EZ final March manufacturing PMIs along with US with the ADP report and the ISM Manufacturing in focus tomorrow. Immediate support lies at 1.0700 followed by 1.0688 and finally 1.0618. Resistances are at 1.0833, 1.0860 and then 1.0900. 

GBP/USD: The pound is outperforming its G10 peers with the exception of the US dollar. The pair managed to regain the 1.4800 handle and advanced to session tops near 1.4870 after finding bids around 1.4760. At the moment the pair is trading at 1.4852, up 0.28%. Next hurdle is at 1.4901 (high ) followed by 1.4923 (high ) and finally 1.5000. On the downside, supports lie at 1.4752, 1.4722 and then 1.4689.

AUD/USD: AUD remains on the back foot on Tuesday. AUD/USD extending losses into a sixth day in a row amid broad greenback strength. The pair fell briefly below 0.7600 and hit a 2-week low of 0.7590 earlier on the day. Aussie remains pressurised by low commodity prices and speculations the RBA might cut for second time this year. Supports lie at 0.7585, 0.7567 and 0.7548, while on the flipside resiatances are 0.7702, 0.7721 and 0.7740. Option expiries Wednesday 1st April: 0.7640-50 (1BLN), 0.7600-05 (360M)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company –