FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNZ, suggest that the September quarter CPI – out Wednesday – is the main Australia data event this week and NAB expects headline CPI to print at 0.8% for the quarter, up 1.8% for on a year to basis.
Key Quotes
“It’s typically a significant market mover, with inflation expected to print in line with the RBA’s CPI forecast track that embody around a ¾% quarterly rise in headline CPI this half and close to a ½% rise in underlying CPI. Wednesday’s result is very much likely to be right on that track and thus not expected to swing the market.”
“Underlying inflation, a central focus for the Reserve Bank as a key guide to inflationary pressures (or lack thereof) is expected to remain subdued, up 0.5% for the quarter, up 2½% on a year-to basis.”
“There is a risk to our headline CPI forecasts and it is the upside possibility of a greater pickup in tradeable’s inflation from a greater than expected exchange rate pass through – though this is yet to be seen in the data, from company reports nor evident from industry liaison.”
“With inflation subdued, and still within the RBA’s target, monetary policy will likely be driven more by real activity outcomes and financial conditions.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)