FXStreet (Bali) – Seasonals, which should be taken with a grain of salt as a stand-alone indicator, although carrying value when complementing one’s analysis, suggest a month of neutral to bullish bias in the Aussie, according to data collected via Reuters tracking June price action since 2005 to date.
AUD enters June on a heavy note
The Australian Dollar has seen the downside accelerate during May, following the re-introduction of an explicit easing bias by the RBA in the last minutes released on May 19, leaving little room for doubt or misinterpretations that if any policy action were to exist in the near future, risk remains skewed towards lower interest rates should conditions warrant. As a reminder for readers, bets for the RBA easing stance to stay for longer increased last week, following an appalling Australian capital expenditure data, to which Moody’s is warning today, to be a possible credit negative event going forward.
AUD/USD: RBA, US Non-Farm Payrolls key
Sentiment in the Australian Dollar heading into June will be, in large part, determined by tomorrow’s RBA monetary policy meeting, and this Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls data. No material changes are expected from the RBA, likely to wait for further data fundamental justifications in order to turn more vocal on its dovish rhetoric. One would think the bar has set fairly high for that scenario to materialize short term though, given that the Central Bank is already running ultra-record low rates, and with China’s growth prospects looking slightly rosier heading into H2, if one is to follow the predictions from China’s most influential Think Tanks.
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