The week ahead is jam packed for the Asian sessions topped with the usual first Friday of the month Nonfarm payrolls key event for the greenback. But focusing on the Aussie, we have a series of data releases to keep us in our seats.
A quick glance back to last week’s volatility, AUD/USD lost over a cent in the last trading session in the US shift. The Aussie was sliding into the US GDP releases that took it’s cue from the better than the expected Durable goods report earlier in the week, as noted by analysts at ANZ and surprised to the upside. “It was for the 4Q – so old news – and later the Atlanta Fed 1Q GDP estimate was lowered to 2.1% from 2.5% (it was 2.7% not long ago), but it was the push the US dollar needed to keep the buying going for the day.” The Aussie dropped from 0.7220 down to 0.7118 to close at 0.7122 for the week.
A blockbuster week for AUD/USD
This week is a blockbuster with Aussie GDP, the RBA meeting and first read of activity for this year. Then, we turn heads to China for the February PMI suite in Manufacturing PMI (however being a holiday month – market expecting dips in in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs) ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls. In respect of the RBA, a cool head is expected from the Central Bank while according to analysts at TD Securities, GDP might come in slightly weaker on the quarter, but still hit the RBA’s 2.5% annual target. “Also of interest will be the trade balance for Jan – how bad will it be in light of the poor Chinese trade data?”.
For nonfarm payrolls, the economy expected to add a relatively modest 168K jobs in February while expecting the unemployment rate to rise modestly, climbing to 5.0% from 4.9%. Meanwhile, the G20 didn’t offer any surprises and no material impact is expected in the open. However, some continued downside might be actioned in Sterling and the euro with German finance minister who told the G20 that Europe is in an extremely difficult situation due to refugees and Brexit. The general tone was that the global economy is in better shape than the markets are pricing in.
AUD/USD while now trading below the pivot SD last week tumbled and broke down through the 100,50 and 20 dma’s and spot currently trades below the pivot of 0.7169. S1 is located at 0.7054, S2 at 0.7036 and S3 at 0.7019. The downside last also broke the ascending support line commencing at 0.7002 on the 2nd Feb, offering the level as a key target while the daily RSI (14) remain in neutral at 49.81 currently.
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)