The AUD opens significantly weaker today after consistently trending downwards through yesterday’s trading session. With no economic releases on the cards yesterday, low commodity prices and expectations for an interest rate cut have weighed down the Aussie which saw lows of 76.07 US cents. The 2 cent gain which occurred earlier in the week due to a statement from the US Federal reserve has been clawed back, and the AUS/USD seems to have been corrected while being brought back to the 76 cent handle. The AUD opens against the Greenback this morning at 0.7645, and investors will be eyeing RBA Governor Stevens’s speech at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia luncheon for any further monetary policy or interest rate clues.
We expect a range today of 0.7610 – 0.7690
New Zealand Dollar:
The Kiwi has fallen against its US counterpart commencing the day’s trade only buying 74.10 US cents. The NZD did make significant progress earlier in the week against the Greenback, as did many other major currencies, however the gains were short lived as most currencies have now slid back to levels seen before the FOMC made comments hinting at a more cautious outlook for the US economy. In the absence of any domestic data the NZ dollar is not expected to see any sharp movements over the day’s trade, and may take some direction overnight from the US depending on what is said by FOMC members Lockhart and Evans at their separate public addresses.
Great British Pound:
The Cable has lost previous gains it had made during the week due to Greenback strength across the board, and opens weaker today at 1.4752. Furthermore BOE’s Andy Haldane has made bearish comments that the central bank may look to cut the current interest rate, which has weight down the GBP to see intraday lows of 1.4686. Upcoming public sector net borrowing figures being released today will attract trader’s attention, as the result printed will indicate whether or not there is a current budget surplus or deficit.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9240 – 1.9320
Despite worse than expected domestic data the US dollar rallied across the board taking back the majority of losses that occurred on Thursday. After the US Federal reserve stressed further patience with regards to the US economy the time frame to an expected interest rate increase was extended. Trade began with a basket of below par US data beginning with unemployment claims and a widening current account began trade, however the Greenback continued to push higher. The weak results were followed up soon after with the Philly Fed Manufacturing index which showed growth at its slowest rate in just over a year. The Euro fell almost 2 percent against the USD and the higher yielding currencies followed in a similar light. Heading towards the weekend is an array of light European and US data which should have a fairly light impact on the market.
AUD: RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
CAD: Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m
EUR: German PPI m/m, Current Account, EU Economic Summit
GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing
JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
NZD: Visitor Arrivals m/m, Credit Card Spending y/y
USD: FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, FOMC Member Evans Speaks