Australian Dollar:

The Aussie dollar took a battering throughout trade on Monday as speculators adjusted their positions ahead of today’s RBA rate announcement. Down 0.4 percent investors saw the PBOC’s (Peoples bank of China) decision to lower its benchmark rate as an indication the Australian Central Bank will be forced to follow suit. The last PBOC rate cut helped fuel an AUD rally on expectations China was looking to boost domestic growth but the shift in investor focus away from macroeconomic indicators and toward central bank monetary policy saw the AUD touch a daily low of 0.7755. Attentions will be squarely tuned to the RBA this afternoon with the market split on whether the Central Bank will again lower its benchmark rate. The decision to hold could induce a rally back toward resistance at 0.79 while a cut will likely see secondary downward push toward technical support at 0.7620.

We expect a range today of 0.7620 – 0.7920

 

New Zealand Dollar:

Much like most of its major trading partners the NZD edged lower against the USD as markets largely ignored another string of soft US data. Buoyed by expectations the Federal Reserve will adjust its benchmark cash rate throughout 2015 investors are looking for cues and shifts in central bank’s monetary policies for direction at present. With little on the docket today the Kiwi will take guidance from the Australian Reserve Bank and its rate announcement looking to break outside of recent ranges and edge closer to parity should the central bank lower the OCR to 2.00%.

We expect a range today of 0.7450 – 0.7650

 

Great British Pound:

Despite an expansion across manufacturing sectors throughout January a softer than anticipated house price index and fall in the number of mortgage approvals dampened speculators demand for Sterling throughout trade on Monday. Edging downward and touching intraday lows of 1.5351 Cable succumbed to USD strength as markets rallied behind the world’s base currency buoyed by last week’s shift in tone from the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. With Construction PMI the headline macroeconomic driver on hand today we will be looking to the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney as the primary source of directional impetus as he addresses the Treasury Select Committee in London.    

We expect a range today of 1.9520 – 2.0050 

 

Majors:

The U.S Dollars upward run continued into the new week with the world’s base currency advancing against both is European and Japanese counterparts as the dollar index neared 11 year highs. Strong German and Italian PMI reports and an upward revision on inflation expectations offered support to the 19 nation shared currency in early trade and helped the Euro nudge back through 1.12. The mounting rally ran out of steam on approaches to 1.1250 despite another string of softer U.S macroeconomic data sets. Personal Spending and Income both fell, while Construction and manufacturing stalled in January and the Fed’s measure of the inflation the PCE price index remained relatively unchanged. Yesterday highlighted analyst’s willingness to largely ignore macroeconomic cues pushing the Greenback higher on expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rates for the first time since 2006 at some point throughout 2015. With attentions squarely focused on central bank policy we look to the ECB press conference Thursday for a guidance with U.S Non-farm payrolls headlining the US economic calendar into the weekly close.

 

Data releases

AUD: Building Approvals m/m, Current Account Balance, Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement     

NZD: ANZ Commodity Prices

JPY: Monetary Base y/y, 10 Year Bond Auction and Average Cash Earnings

GBP: Construction PMI and BoE Governor Carney Speaks

EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, Spanish Unemployment Change and PPI m/m

USD: TIPP Economic Optimism