Author: Christopher Vecchio, CFA

The June ECB meeting and the May US nonfarm payrolls report take top billing during the first week of the month.

The Federal Reserve’s extraordinary stimulus efforts have had an understandable impact on the US Treasury yield curve – which has lost some utility.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday, May 13 at 02:00 GMT; rates markets are pricing in a 12% chance of a 25-bps rate cut.

The April US inflation report (consumer price index) is due out on Tuesday, May 12 at 12:30 GMT, and the data are expected to show a sharp pullback in price pressures.

Although Euro losses have slowed over the past few weeks, the context of the recent consolidations offers little reassurance for bulls.

The NY Fed Recession Probability indicator only indicates an 18% chance of a recession within the next year. That seems low.