Non-Farm Payrolls preview: all ’bout the money – 3 scenarios

The May 2017 Non-Farm Payrolls report is critical for the June decision. If the Federal Reserve is truly data dependent, this is the most important data point. The Non-Farm Payrolls, aka NFP, or “king of forex indicators” is coming on the first Friday of the month, and wages matter a lot more than the actual job […]

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US elections: Trump’s gloom gaining traction – will markets react?

Just over 100 days towards the US presidential elections, and the race is becoming tighter, much tighter. Republican nominee Donald Trump was closing the gap on Democrat Hillary Clinton already before the Republican convention in Cleveland. And now, it seems that the race is neck to neck. According to Nate Silver’s 538, the chances of Clinton winning have fallen […]

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The Case For A Higher EUR: Outlook & Targets – Morgan Stanley

EUR/USD is sliding to the downside but it may recover, says the team at MS: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: We expect EUR to appreciate moderately this year but then depreciate significantly in 2017 EUR fits into the category of currencies driven increasingly by real over nominal yield differentials. Falling inflation expectations as a […]

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UK post Brexit special PMIs show 7 year lows – GBP/USD plunges

The UK services sector does not look good: 47.4 on the services PMI. The manufacturing PMI is also negative at 49.1 points. The composite index is at the worst in 7 years. The services sector and especially financial services, are critical for the UK economy. The fall in manufacturing could have been cushioned by the fall […]

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German PMIs beat expectations

It is business as usual in Germany: the manufacturing sector is down, but better than expected: 53.7 points against 53.5 expected and 54.5 seen in June. The services sector looks even better: a rise from 53.7 to 54.6 points, much better than a slide to 53.2 predicted. EUR/USD remains quite indifferent, similar to its behavior seen beforehand. The pair […]

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German PMIs beat expectations

It is business as usual in Germany: the manufacturing sector is down, but better than expected: 53.7 points against 53.5 expected and 54.5 seen in June. The services sector looks even better: a rise from 53.7 to 54.6 points, much better than a slide to 53.2 predicted. EUR/USD remains quite indifferent, similar to its behavior seen beforehand. The pair […]

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ECB to ease in September – 2 thoughts – will EUR/USD fall?

Draghi tried not to rock the boat in the July meeting, but the door is certainly open for more easing. Will it send the euro lower? Here are opinions from SEB and Danske: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: ECB To Extend QE Program After The Summer Break – SEB In line with our […]

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