FXStreet (Córdoba) – According to analysts from Rabobank, next week the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged and the Inflation Report will show a more gradual path. They see no rate hike at least until November.
Key Quotes:
“Market skepticism on the ability of the BoE to hike rates has continued to grow. As it stands the SONIA curve implies a greater chance of a BoE rate cut than a hike in the period out to March 2017.”
“Money market rates have been more dovish on the outlook for BoE policy than the consensus of economists for some months. The latest Reuters BoE Monetary Policy poll has indicated a shift in economists’ expectations for the first BoE rate hike of the cycle to Q4 2016 from Q2 2016 in the previous survey. The UK money market has also lost confidence in the BoE’s tightening cycle. As it stands the SONIA curve implies a greater chance of a BoE rate cut than a hike in the period out to March 2017. We see no interest rate hike until November 2016 at the earliest.”
“The Bank’s updated projections is for CPI inflation to increase slightly more gradually than the path described in the November Inflation Report, rising to 0.5% or so by the early months of 2016 and remaining around that level for several months.”
“The trajectory of energy prices will remain key as to the pace of the recovery in the CPI inflation rate. That said, the MPC minutes also mention that the recent depreciation of sterling will lessen the drag on CPI inflation caused by the strength of the pound last year. The UK effective exchange rate is currently around 6% below its December high.”
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