Bitcoin to $6000

Bitcoin to $6000

Bitcoin / Dollar BITFINEX:BTCUSD

It seems pretty clear that the multi-month pennant has broken to the downside. It’s difficult to interpret this as anything but a sell signal. I added to my short when the line broke and will hold this position.
In the very immediate term we may see a bounce or bear flag retrace half of this drop and put us around $6850, but I don’t expect buyers to push this much higher. My assumption here is that we’re heading to test the prior low at ~$6k before we see a proper bounce where bulls are likely to defend the narrative of a double bottom .

Overall mid-term picture looks very bearish . I would not be surprised to see another capitulation move in the next couple months to the $4300-$4900 range if $6k does not hold, with G20 coming in July and all the FUD that will surround it, i foresee us dropping. I would expect large buys in this price range and this will be a profitable range for volatility traders. A return to mean would put us in the low $4k range by year’s end.

We need to cull the moon shills, unsustainable projects and people waiting to drop bags off before a proper move up is possible. Long term I’m bullish on crypto, but with G20 around the corner, and so many alts that have no need for a blockchain sitting at multimillion market caps, a cutdown is needed.

Right now it’s difficult to see this mid-term trend changing without new capital in the form of renewed interest from retail buyers or the ingestion of institutional money if/when that happens. This is all just market cycles. In the interim, the crypto space will continue to mature behind the scenes – I still see this space in its infancy, and if/when the next bubble comes it will ride on the back of a more mature usability layer in the form of easy payment systems knit into the existing IOT             framework which will go a long way in demystifying crypto and showcasing its practicality.