FXStreet (Bali) – Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, Senior Market Strategist at RBS, notes that the bank’s base case remains for no easing by the BOJ this Friday, which should translate in a sharp post-meeting bounce in the yen.
Key Quotes
“The market is strongly divided between foreign investors expecting easing and Japanese investors anticipating no change.”
“The BoJ will also publish new forecasts. The decision plus the new FY2016 inflation forecast will drive dollar-yen’s reaction.”
“If the BoJ stays on hold and only marginally lowers forecasts, dollar-yen will fall sharply back into its recent 115-120 range.”
“If the BoJ is unchanged but significantly downgrades forecasts, dollar-yen will likely be bought on the dip below 119-120.”
“If the BoJ eases modestly by only raising ETF, REIT purchases, dollar-yen will succumb to profit-taking and fall below 120.”
“If the BoJ eases sharply by raising its ¥80trn a year JGB buying, dollar-yen will trade in a higher 120-125 range.”
“We think the probabilities for the BoJ’s four scenarios above are 40%, 30%, 15% and 15% respectively.”
“Unchanged and only slightly lower inflation forecast: dollar-yen falls sharply back into its recent 115-120 range (40% probability).”
“Unchanged but inflation forecast slashed: dollar-yen bought on dip below 119-120 as market sees future easing (30% probability).”
“BoJ eases modestly by only raising ETF, REIT purchases: dollar-yen succumbs to profit-taking, falls below 120 (15% probability).”
“BoJ eases sharply by raising its ¥80trn a year pace of bond buying: dollar-yen trades in a higher 120-125 range (15% probability).”
“Our base case remains no easing this Friday and a sharp post-meeting bounce in the yen (15% probability).”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)