Brazilian Real (BRL) has been falling against dollar for last six months, it reached 3.315 prior to FOMC last month when dollar was slashed lower by dovish comments and projections from FOMC participants. Real has gained back some grounds since trading at 3.185 against dollar.
- However, Real depreciation may not have run its course. It might still go down against other majors and developed counterparts should FOMC keep slashing dollar down in future meetings.
- GDP is expected to shrink this year, might reach -0.5 to -1%. Latest PMI report suggested slowdown has accelerated in March. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 42 month low, dropped sharply to 46.2 from 49.6 in February.
- Inflation continue to persist higher. Producers experiencing continual price rise for consecutive 5 months. Inflation as of February stands at 7.7%. Central bank’s 12.75% rate might be increased further. Output cost to consumers rose to 16 month high.
- To add to the woe Brazil’s export commodity prices namely orange juice, Coffee, Sugar all are relatively lower.
Moreover escalation of political protests might deteriorate situation further. Chart courtesy Trading economics via Soberlook.
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