CATEGORY EUR/USD

EUR/USD challenges cycle lows

EUR/USD challenges cycle lows

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EUR/USD challenges cycle lows

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FXStreet (Córdoba) – EUR/USD extended losses during the American session as the dollar staged a broad comeback that was fueled by solid US jobs data, with the pair retracing completely previous day’s gains.

EUR/USD dropped nearly 80 pips over the day and hit a daily low of 1.0558, pausing the decline just above its 7-month low scored last Friday. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0567, recording a 0.56% loss on the day.

Traders’ attention now turns to the European Central Bank decision on Thursday when the bank is expected announce more monetary stimulus in the form of a deposit rate cut and/or an expansion of its QE programme, which if confirmed will add further pressure on the euro.

EUR/USD key levels

In terms of technical levels, next supports for EUR/USD are seen at 1.0557 (7-month low Nov 30), 1.0520 (Apr 13 low), 1.0500 (psychological level) and then 1.0462 (2015 low Mar 13). On the upside, immediate resistances could be faced at 1.0636/37 (Nov 27, Dec 1 highs), 1.0700 (psychological level), 1.0762 (Nov 19 high) and 1.0829 (Nov 12 high).

EUR/USD extended losses during the American session as the dollar staged a broad comeback that was fueled by solid US jobs data, with the pair retracing completely previous day’s gains.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD: watch Germany-U.S. 2Y yield spreads – Scotiabank

EUR/USD: watch Germany-U.S. 2Y yield spreads – Scotiabank

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at Scotiabank explained that market participants intensify their focus on relative policy and risks heading into next week’s ECB meeting.

Key Quotes:

“Media focus on the range of ECB options being discussed—including a two tiered deposit rate (to allow for greater cuts), broadening asset purchases to include bonds of towns and regions, as well as loans at risk of non -payment—has weighed on yields across the euro area, pushing the German 2Y yield to a fresh low under -40bpts.

The Germany-U.S. 2Y yield spread is now at a fresh low nearing –134bpts, a level not seen since 2006. Yield spreads have been, and are likely to remain, key drivers for EUR. “

Analysts at Scotiabank explained that market participants intensify their focus on relative policy and risks heading into next week’s ECB meeting.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD regains 1.0600 and trims losses

EUR/USD regains 1.0600 and trims losses

FXStreet (Córdoba) – EUR/USD staged a mild bounce from fresh 7-month lows and regained the 1.0600 level as the dollar softened into the European close.

After posting a fresh low at 1.0565, EUR/USD turned higher and trimmed early losses, although the upside has remained contained by the 1.0625 zone so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0615, still 0.25% below its opening price.

EUR/USD was already under pressure amid increasing speculations the ECB will extend its QE program, when a series of US data released during the New York session pushed the pair to its lowest level since April.

EUR/USD technical levels

On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 1.0520 (Apr 13 low), 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0462 (2015 low Mar 13). On the upside, short-term resistances are seen at 1.0679 (10-day SMA), 1.0762 (Nov 19 high) and then 1.0779 (21-day SMA).

EUR/USD staged a mild bounce from fresh 7-month lows and regained the 1.0600 level as the dollar softened into the European close.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD moves back and forth amid Fed/ECB speculation

EUR/USD moves back and forth amid Fed/ECB speculation

FXStreet (Córdoba) – EUR/USD continues to move back and forth within its daily range unable to set short term direction as investors assess recent events and their implications on the ECB and the Fed monetary paths.

While a strong jobs report in US boosted expectations of a rate hike in December, there has been reports suggesting the ECB is considering cutting the deposit rate next month, widening the gap on monetary policy prospects between the two banks.

EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.0726 at the beginning of the American session, but managed to recover ground and turned positive for the day. However, gains remain limited, with the 1.0790 area capping the upside. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0760, recording a 0.29% gain on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, immediate resistances line up at 1.0790 (Nov 9 high), 1.0896 (Nov 5 high) and then 1.0916 (10-day SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0707 (post-NFP low Nov 6), 1.0660 (Apr 21 low) and 1.0624 (Apr 16 low).

EUR/USD continues to move back and forth within its daily range unable to set short term direction as investors assess recent events and their implications on the ECB and the Fed monetary paths.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD: minor recovery needs to break 1.0800 – FXStreet

EUR/USD: minor recovery needs to break 1.0800 – FXStreet

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the American dollar is giving back some of its recent gains this Monday, albeit the decline is barely corrective, given that the greenback has reached overbought levels against most of its rivals last Friday.

Key Quotes:

“The EUR/USD pair has reached a daily high of 1.0789 as local share markets retreated some, but the upside remains limited. Early data showed that German trade balance reached a surplus of €22.9 billion in September 2015, whilst exports and imports jumped well above expected in September, reversing the declines from previous months.”

“With only some minor reports scheduled for the American session, the pair remains below the 1.0800 level, with limited upward potential in the short term, as the 1 hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator has host its upward strength after recovering above its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator is resuming its decline around 45, having corrected the extreme oversold readings reached last Friday.”

“In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above the current price, offering an immediate resistance around 1.0820, whilst the technical indicators have turned south well below their mid-lines and after correcting extreme oversold readings, supporting further declines particularly on a break below 1.0700.”

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the American dollar is giving back some of its recent gains this Monday, albeit the decline is barely corrective, given that the greenback has reached overbought levels against most of its rivals last Friday.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD: golden cross – BBH

EUR/USD: golden cross – BBH

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted the EUR/USD’s golden cross.Key Quotes:”The euro’s 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average in early October for the first time since July 2014. The turning of the …

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EUR/USD: Another terrible week for the euro

EUR/USD: Another terrible week for the euro

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EUR/USD: Another terrible week for the euro

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FXStreet (Córdoba) – Like two weeks ago, EUR/USD dropped sharply in the market falling more than 250 pips. A strong US dollar pushed the pair sharply to the downside.

The pair finished the week trading around 1.0735/55, after finding support at 1.0700, down 2.30% from the level it had seven days ago as it continues the decline that started after approaching 1.1500 three weeks ago. It posted the lowest weekly close since April 22.

EUR/USD: Another hit from the NFP

Today’s US jobs numbers pushed the pair sharply to the downside, but even before the report the euro was already falling against the US dollar and moving with a bearish bias.

“The pair seems to have set the tone for the rest of the year, or at least, until the December FED’s meeting, as all of the ongoing dollar’s strength is based on speculation that the US Central Bank will raise its rates then”, said Valeria Bednarik, Chief analyst at FXStreet.

From a technical perspective, the trend remains bearish. Bednarik noted that advances up to the 1.0840 region, the base of these last months’ range, will be seen as selling opportunities. “Given the extreme oversold readings present also in the shorter term, the pair can extend above this region, and rally up to 1.0960, where another bout of selling waits, and still unable to harm, the dominant bearish trend”, she concluded.

Like two weeks ago, EUR/USD dropped sharply in the market falling more than 250 pips. A strong US dollar pushed the pair sharply to the downside.


(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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Is the BoE the Fed’s Mini-Me? – Commerzbank

Is the BoE the Fed’s Mini-Me? – Commerzbank

FXStreet (Córdoba) – The FX market seems to think that Fed and Bank of England (BoE’s) monetary policies will move largely in parallel, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank. According to him, while the BoE’s policy is indeed influenced by the Fed’s actions, the impact is certainly not as significant as assumed by the market.

Key Quotes

“The G10 currencies have been considerably more volatile since the beginning of the year, with one clear exception: GBP/USD. In contrast to EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, GBP/USD has been considerably less volatile this year. That means that the market assumes a high correlation between the EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP exchange rate (currently about 74%). Investors seem to expect that the key influence on USD, EUR and GBP exchange rates will have a similar effect on USD and GBP in the near future”.

“With monetary policy still being the predominant issue on the FX markets, it is quite easy to spot this factor. There is a broad consensus among market participants that the BoE’s monetary policy (in particular the timing of the first rate hike) will depend to a considerable extent on the Fed’s rate decision”.

“The market expects that if the Fed increases its key rate soon, the BoE will follow suit. And in this scenario, both EUR/USD and EUR/GBP would depreciate. However, the markets’ expectations of the two exchange rates moving in synch might be exaggerated. The BoE is not the Fed’s Mini-Me. Especially at the beginning of a rate-hike cycle which might be slower than in the past, each central bank will have to individually signal its starting point and the subsequent pace of rate hikes. This will create uncertainty”.

“The fact that BoE governor Mark Carney did not change his rhetoric yesterday (even though the FOMC took a more hawkish stance) is not surprising. Moreover, one reason why the Fed’s course is so important for the BoE’s policy is that the BoE (just like many other central banks) wants to avoid an excessive FX reaction to its monetary policy decisions. That is why the BoE will take into account the fact that the ECB will soon pursue an even more expansionary course – and then, the current expectations concerning the correlation between EUR/GBP and EUR/USD will turn out to be exaggerated”.

The FX market seems to think that Fed and Bank of England (BoE’s) monetary policies will move largely in parallel, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank. According to him, while the BoE’s policy is indeed influenced by the Fed’s actions, the impact is certainly not as significant as assumed by the market.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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EUR/USD uninspired by US PMIs

EUR/USD uninspired by US PMIs

FXStreet (Córdoba) – EUR/USD edged a few pips down but overall remained little changed within its recent range following the release of better than expected US PMIs data.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index dipped to 50.1 in October from 50.2 the previous month, but came in above the 50.0 expected. Still the reading was the lowest since May 2013. Meanwhile, construction spending rose by 0.6% in September versus a 0.5% increase expected.

EUR/USD slid to the 1.1025 area but the dollar failed to hold gains amid lackluster readings. At time of writing, the pair was trading at 1.1038, still up 0.38% on the day.

EUR/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, on the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 1.1071 (Oct 30 high), 1.1095 (Oct 28 high) and then 1.1110 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, supports might be found at 1.0965 (Oct 30 low), 1.0896 (Oct 28 low) and 1.0847 (Aug monthly low).

EUR/USD edged a few pips down but overall remained little changed within its recent range following the release of better than expected US PMIs data.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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