Dear Colleagues

As you know, a reasonable trade in FX is a trade when you have two currencies moving in opposite direction. For example for AUDJPY             Long, I should see strong AUD and Weak YEN. However; things are a bit different for this trade. Because, I can see such a weak YEN, that it really does not matter (if I can say that) that how strong AUD is.

So let’s look at YEN first.

1) This is weighted average YEN. Would you go long here? No, of course… YEN is depreciating against other major currencies. Not to forget that right shoulder is forming.

2) This is YEN futures and self-explanatory. The lower it is the weaker the YEN will be….

3) YEN Yield. Same direction with FX expected. What a nice Inverted H&S right on the support.

4) Beautiful YEN Bonds. Same direction expected. Can you see the H&S here too?

5) NIKKEI UP after a broken neckline of an Inverted H&S . Opposite relationship expected.

For those of you that are following GOLD             Short trade remember that YEN is correlated with GOLD             positively. Another confirmation for that trade. Also USD Yields and USD Bonds confirm cheaper YEN.

For AUD I would expect this currency to appreciate but to be honest I am not sure about timing. That is perhaps silly to take a trade when you are not certain about one of two currencies. AUD has major supports to break if it wants to go lower, and soon a bounce expected but because that YEN weakness is so clear I just took this trade. You may prefer to wait a few days for further confirmation. For me I can see a trade here. Sorry if this does not make sense.

6) This is weighted average AUD. You see what a difficult task AUD has if it wants to go lower.

7) AUD futures have still have some room to go lower but not that much. See the major support (The blue dotted line).

8) Any stronger Yields for AUD signals stronger currency.

Thank for following this trade.
Khan