Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7610 – 0.7710
The AUD was able to regain all of the losses due to USD strength on Friday despite it being a fairly quiet news day. The Chinese Trade balance data was released during Australian trade and the response was muted with very little currency movement. The Chinese trade balance number came in with a surplus of $52.31 billion which beat expectations however it showed that imports had dropped over 12% which is an ongoing concern for the Australian economy which relies heavily on exporting goods to China. As there is no data being released today the focus will be on the Chinese CPI y/y data which is to be released this morning.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.7090 – 0.7190
The New Zealand dollar finished strongly after a disappointing start to the day. The New Zealand Dollar hit intraday lows 0.7088 against the USD before recovering strongly and finishing the day up slightly at 0.7142. The early weakness in the NZD followed the release of the Chinese trade balance data which showed that import levels of the Chinese economy had dropped. As we have no local data released today the market will continue to have one eye on the interest rate decision by the RBNZ on Thursday where they are expected to cut rates from 2.25% to 2.00%.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.7380 – 1.7580
The Pound traded sideways against the US Dollar for most of Monday with the pair suck between 1.3030 and 1.3080. With key data out of the UK due Tuesday in the form of Manufacturing Production (forecast 0.0%; previous -0.5%) the Sterling is open to further downside should the data come well below markets expectations. With US data of late coming in stronger and stronger, the market is still trying to second the US Federal Reserve as to when interest rates will rise in 2016. Against its Aussie and Kiwi, the Pound is changing hands in Sydney at 1.7000 and 1.8230 respectively.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
Japanese Current Account numbers beat expectations on Monday however the reaction in the currency markets was limited with the market still trying to work out what effect the recently approved stimulus package is going to have on the economy with many unsure if it will be enough to kick start the spluttering Japanese economy. The USD/JPY rate is currently sitting at 102.46. It was a fairly quiet day elsewhere with limited data out of the US and Europe resulting in minimal currency movements on Monday.