Climate Change Morphs Ecosystems In ‘Blink’ Of Geologic Time
As atmospheric CO2 (carbon dioxide) levels continue to rise, enormous tree-planting campaigns are often touted among ways humans can try and limit climate change.
In Africa, where some regions have been seen as ideal for this type of project, Guy Midgley has a message: “Hang on.”
The botany and zoology professor at Stellenbosch University in South Africa explained that trees are already moving into African grasslands. Higher levels of carbon dioxide are beginning to change those ecosystems into forests, he told a crowd at Washington University Friday. And studies show those trees will be bigger the more carbon there is.
“This is a flip in biodiversity,” said Mr. Midgley, who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his work for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “It’s not an individualistic species response, it’s a systemic response. … We think that in some parts of Africa, we’re going to have to get rid of trees to preserve (bio-diversity).”
Mr. Midgley was among a group of global experts who came to speak at a Washington University symposium on bio-diversity and climate change co-organized by Missouri Botanical Garden President Emeritus Peter Raven.
Some estimates show that climate change and its related effects could wipe out some 20 to 30% of the planet’s species by the end of this Century, if not more, he said.
It’s a change that’s important to keep in mind, he said, even as cities and human populations are threatened by rising oceans and hotter temperatures.
“We’re 100% dependent on biological diversity for survival,” said Mr, Raven, who is also a professor emeritus of botany at Washington University(St. Louis, MO)
Plant and animal species provide compounds for food, medicine, clothing and chemicals, Mr. Raven explained. And as species within an interdependent ecosystem are thrown out of balance, the whole system is put at risk, threatening agriculture or causing other unintended consequences.
In Africa, there is already some evidence of the change occurring.
But while more trees in those African eco-systems may sequester carbon and “hopefully, buy us a little time,” Mr. Midgley said other areas of the planet would not see the same results from higher carbon dioxide levels. Higher fire risks in some areas of North America, for example, could reduce tree cover and lead to a net increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
It’s the rapid shift in ecological systems, and the unknown consequences that brings, that should cause concern, he said. Many of the Earth’s ecosystems and organisms, including humans, evolved during what was a period of carbon “starvation.”
Just 200 years of burning fossil fuels has increased carbon to levels not seen in millions of years. Carbon dioxide has reached concentrations equal to or greater than current levels periodically throughout geologic time, wrought by changes in the Earth’s systems over millions of years.
But continuing to emit carbon at current rates could raise atmospheric CO2 to levels last seen tens of millions of years ago in the “blink” of geologic time, Mr. Midgley said.
“This is an ecological shock to our system that I do not think we can get our heads around,” he said.
Mr. Raven called on the audience of about 100 people to “do everything we can politically” to begin addressing a change that he said threatened civilization.
By Jacob Barber, St.Louis Post-Dispatch
Paul Ebeling, Editor
HeffX-LTN
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