- A busy day kicks off with the April ‘flash’ manufacturing and services PMIs for France (0700 GMT), Germany (0730 GMT) and the euro area (0800 GMT). These data will provide a steer on whether the Q1 signs of a revival in euro area activity have spread into Q2 despite the current uncertainties surrounding Greece’s ongoing negotiations with its creditors.
- According to Lloyds Bank, the modest recent pickup in the key German and overall euro area measures to continue, although the unexpected weakness of Germany’s ZEW, which was released on Tuesday, suggests that the risks are tilted to the downside.
- Another spotlight will be on UK retail sales (0830 GMT) and, to a lesser extent, public finance figures for March (0830 GMT). Headline volumes rose by 0.7% m/m in February, up from 0.1% in January, underpinned by strong consumer confidence and rising real incomes. While the BRC data for March point to another solid official outturn, this may reflect Easter falling relatively early this year.
- Given the uncertainty about the ONS adjustment for the holiday shift, it is penciled in a 0.3% m/m increase.
- The public finance data is expected to show a small improvement relative to March 2014 with the ex-Banking measure posting a £7.5bn deficit. However, slippages from earlier in the 2014/15 financial year are likely to see a £1bn undershoot of the OBR’s £90.2bn projection.
- New home sales for March (1400 GMT) is the key US release. Transactions, which are volatile compared to other housing market indicators, have risen in each of the previous three months by an average of 30k reaching 539k in February. A pullback to 528k is expected against the consensus 510k.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com