With President Obama determined not to allow the nation to believe in reality – proclaiming the error of the "doom and gloom" narrative – we found it fascinating that real Americans (as exemplified by Dallas Fed respondents) appear to see a different less 'exceptional' America that the propagandist-in-chief: "Entry-level candidates cannot read or follow instructions. Most cannot do simple math problems. What is wrong with the educational system?"
June responses (from real American business owners, not politicians)…
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
- Industrial production and machinery exports are hurting big time. The global economy, dollar and EuroAsia financial problems are not helping American manufacturers.
- Macroeconomic concerns are causing softening in demand.
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
- Our business is seasonal, so we generally see a downturn in fall/winter. This is not an indication of economic conditions.
- The economy is nervous, shaky and uncertain. Fed policy has us locked into a lethargic and tenuous position. It appears the Fed doesn’t know how to get off the horse it created. The Fed talks interest rate increases but looks for every reason not to do it. Until the Fed backs out of trying to manage the economy, we will be stuck on the cusp of slow growth and a recession. Add the difficulty in getting commercial and retail financing and rising employee costs (health care, minimum wage threats and the ridiculous overtime executive order), and hiring for many of us will be minimal. We cannot have millions of people out of the workforce and be healthy economically—they are a burden not a benefit.
Printing and Related Support Activities
- June has become stupid slow for us, and we are not sure why. We have a decent backlog of work but nothing is here for us to work on now. We are very worried about this goofy decision by the Department of Labor to adjust salary levels for overtime; that makes zero sense to us and will have a negative impact on how we go about compensating office people.
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
- We are experiencing major demand instability in the U.S. Continued management focus on upcoming regulatory changes is keeping us from pursuing new markets (especially internationally) and delaying making long-term investments. Major human resources policy updates and changes have resulted in eliminating positions (in the future as people are promoted or leave the company they will not be replaced) and considering moving all salary people who do not travel to hourly. Although we need more people, we are increasing the requirements for the open positions to reflect higher cost thresholds and most likely will delay hiring decisions for most positions until the impacts of the changes are fully understood.
- The Affordable Care Act (ACA) continues a downward push on productivity as it limits our hiring because we can't afford the estimated 60 percent increase in health care premiums that an ACA-compliant policy would cost. Steel raw material costs are rising, but the steel scrap is falling, therefore increasing our costs. Customers are not accepting price increases. It is slow, and the general business climate seems tepid at best.
July responses (from real American business owners, not politicians)…
Chemical Manufacturing
- Entry-level candidates cannot read or follow instructions. Most cannot do simple math problems. What is wrong with the educational system?
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
- There is a shortage of both skilled and unskilled labor. With labor costs increasing, we may be forced to drop health care, which is increasing in cost also.
- Large customers are dragging out their payments, causing cash flow problems.
- The ability to find qualified employees is our largest problem at this time.
- The global economies and the U.S. economy are very weak and uncertain.
Machinery Manufacturing
- The six-month survey is hopeful, not a forecast. Low oil prices are still having a negative impact on overall business growth.
- The longest and worst oil price plunge in recent history continues to have a strong negative effect on Texas business activity. We also see a weak market for capital equipment for manufacturing across the country. We expect the Federal Reserve will soon acknowledge the fact we are in recession and drop interest rates.
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
- We are seeing very slow, but steady growth. We have no expectation of that changing for the foreseeable future.
- We have to do something about the dollar—the high dollar is killing our capital equipment manufacturing; our products are not competitive out in the world.
Textile Product Mills
- It is very difficult to get qualified employees.
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
- Europe, hot weather, riots, shootings and the political situation are not conducive to a healthy economy.
Yeah but apart from that, everything is awesome?
Which may explains this…
TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today. https://t.co/djsqNajFrh pic.twitter.com/7DvrdieHOw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2016
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