“It will be more active in terms of data with October trade and production data as well as Services PMI scheduled to be released. However, none of these releases should have any bigger an impact on the BoE’s monetary policy stance, which is stable in an environment in which intact Brexit uncertainty is coupled to increased upside risks to inflation.
As such it will be political developments that drive the currency still. Mainly on the back of Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem stressing that the EU may find a way for the UK to access the internal market, hard-Brexit fears fell anew to the benefit of the currency.
With short positioning still elevated some additional position squaring related GBP upside risks cannot be excluded towards the end of the year, especially against the USD.
When it comes to EUR/GBP we believe that the longer-term outlook is more constructive. Hence, we stay long the cross via options”.
Copyright © 2016 Credit Agricole CIB, eFXnews™
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