Day Ahead: OPEC Report, Trade, and SNB in Focus

As has become normal these days, the focus among investors these days have been about trade. The current big issue is whether Donald Trump will meet China’s Xi Jinping at the G20 meeting in Japan. While the meeting has not yet been confirmed, a report by the South China Morning Post said a one on one meeting between the two leaders will take place. In a statement by China’s Liu He said that the country’s external pressure will be positive for the Chinese economy as companies will be forced to develop their own products like computer chips.

Today, Australia released the employment numbers for the month of May. The data showed that the country’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%. This was higher than the expected 5.1%. The participation rate increased to 66% while the employment change in the month increased by 42.3k. These numbers came a week after the Australian central bank slashed interest rates to spur employment and inflation.

Today, attention will shift to the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is expected to hold interest rates at the current -0.75%. The rates have remained at these levels since December 2014. Many analysts surveyed by Reuters said that they expect the rates to remain unchanged until 2021. As such, the Swiss Franc could be more volatile if the SNB sounds more dovish or hawkish. The head of the bank will hold a meeting at 9:00 AM (GMT).

In the United States, investors will receive the initial jobless claims numbers. These numbers are expected to show that the claims decreased by 215k in the past week. This will be slightly lower than last week’s 218k. The continuing jobless claims are expected to fall to 1,680k from the previous 1,682k. The export price index declined by -0.5%, which was lower than the expected growth of 0.3% while the import price is expected to decline by -1.4%.

In Europe, numbers released from Germany were in line with the expectations. In May, the CPI rose by an annualized rate of 1.4% as expected. On a MoM basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%. The HICP, rose by an annualized rate of 1.3%, which was in line with the expectations.

Traders will also continue to focus on crude oil after the inventory data released yesterday. The numbers from the EIA showed that the crude oil inventories rose by more than 2.25 million barrels. This was higher than the expected drawdown of more than 481k barrels. Last week, the inventories showed that the inventories rose by more than 6.7 million barrels. Today, OPEC will release its monthly report that will give more details about the supply and demand.

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