In my previous post, I was short the DJIA             , with the expectation of adding at down trending resistance. I did add, but was quickly stopped out.

Now price has broken ABOVE the resistance line, and I’m forced into a neutral position. This means I have no conviction either way, and any trades I take will be 1/3 of my full size.

I do not want to be one of these traders who perpetually tries to short US equities – which is exactly what has fueled the most hated rally in history. Yet, I maintain that this could be a FALSE BREAKOUT, and that significant downside remains a possibility. For that to happen, price would need to quickly reverse, fall back under the top side of the multi-month triangle, and stay below there.

Another possibility is that we see a choppy consolidation at these levels over the next few months, before simply rocketing higher. For the bullish case to be confirmed, I would still need to see a closing above the 25800 level to indicate strength.

For now I’m neutral, with a slight bearish leaning. My bearishness is colored by the action in S&P             and the Nasdaq – updates coming soon.

I will take a small short position on a Monday rally, with a stop above last week’s high. If price moves higher next week, I will wait for a clear pattern to emerge before acting.