Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, still believes the cross could reach 1.15 in a 12-month view.
Key Quotes
“EUR/CHF has firmly broken out of the 1.07-1.10 interval and moved close to 1.12 in early February even as the market has now and again priced in more aggressive ECB easing and the SNB has maintained a hesitant stance”.
“Provided the ECB delivers as we expect on rates and QE, there should be only limited pressure on the SNB to move”.
“The tone at the December SNB meeting on the whole suggests that the central bank is less determined to bring about outright CHF weakness, and thus willing to accept EUR/CHF staying at these levels for now”.
“Longer term, we still expect fundamentals will support a higher EUR/CHF and we have kept our forecast profile unchanged, still projecting some possible downside near term as the ECB delivers on easing while the SNB may not (and is partly priced to). We still project the cross at 1.15 in 12M”.
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