Market Roundup
- BoE Keeps Policy on Hold Ahead of Fresh Forecasts
- Dollar better bid, DXY 3rd day of gains, tech resistance at 95.056/95.255.
- USD/JPY holding above its daily cloud but below Friday’s 120.24 high.
- Europe concerned over Greece’s ability to pay IMF Tuesday.
- With funding deal elusive, Greece rides into storm.
- IMF discussing contingency plans for Greek default scenario.
- ECB Nowotny- ECB lender of last resort for banks not countries.
- French FinMin- Progress on Greece but things not ripe for deal.
- Britain’s Cameron to speed up EU talks before referendum.
- EuroZone set to report solid growth for a change.
- EC Timmermans – No “Plan B” for Greece in debt talks.
Economic Data Ahead
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Labor Market Conditions Index (Apr) (previous -0.3).
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Employment Trends Index (May) (previous 127.7).
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 EDT/1545 GMT) Fed Trade Operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.000 bln).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1170 levels after making intraday low at 1.1133. Euro group meeting will be main focus today. Latest fall provides the opportunity to lock in profit on 1.1280 short. Scope is for a test of 1.1055 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Bears are seeking a daily close below the tenkan line at 1.1176 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.1066 and resistance at 1.1220 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1050 (1.7BLN), 1.1100 (2.2BL), 1.1150 (1BL), 1.1200 (1.73BLN).USD/JPY turns up side and currently trading at 119.87 levels and made high of 120.03 levels. The Japanese yen weakened marginally after Flat USD Nonfarm job data as well as unemployment rate. Ichimoku cloud 119.34-76, kijun 119.67, tenkan 119.50, all accommodating. Repeated recent failures below the Cloud base is a bullish sign. There is a scope for 121.16 – 76.4% retrace of the 122.04 to 118.33 down-leg. Today is data free session for JPY, initial support is seen at 119.05 and 118.49. Resistance is seen at 120.69 levels. Options expiries are at 119.50 (394M), 120.00 (2.3BLN), 120.50 (510M), 121.00 (1.7BLN).GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5455 levels and made a high of 1.5468. Sterling reaction non-existent after BOE leaves key rate steady as expected. Pair has formed double top around 1.5500 and retreating from that level. Technically GBP/USD major resistance around 1.5525 and any break will target 1.5640/15745 in short term. Support is seen at 1.5372 levels.USD/CHF touched the low at 0.9295 levels and currently trading nearby previous close at 0.9316 levels. It has made high of 0.9348 levels. CHF depreciated against USD after solid USD NFP numbers. As today is data free session for Switzerland, expecting less movement. Near term support is seen at 0.9303, 0.9267 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9367, 0.9412 levels.AUD/USD is trading at 0.7900 and made intraday low at 0.7876 levels. The Australian dollar fell as the central bank cut its outlook for inflation and growth, suggesting there may be further room to ease the cash rate from a record low 2%. The Australian central bank will hold rates for some time and in late 2016 will eventually raise them, NAB said today. If pair holds below 0.7968, it will be 3rd consecutive lower daily high. Initial support is seen at 0.7787and resistance at 0.7976, 0.8010 levels. Option expiries are at 0.7800 (3.8BLN).
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