Market Roundup
- Swiss Total Sight Deposits at 468.267 bln SFR in week ending dec 25 versus 468.371 bln sfr a week earlier.
- Russian Nov GDP at -4.0 pct y/y – Economy Ministry.
- Russian Central Bank Official says current rouble rate close to its equilibrium value, 2015 inflation unlikely to exceed 13 percent.
- Russia’s central bank continues to take U.S. Fed policy into account in its forecasts, calls slowing Chinese economy main external risk.
- Hong Kong November Imports -8.1 pct from a year earlier.
- Hong Kong November Exports -3.5 pct from a year earlier.
- Russia’s central bank may consider cutting key interest rate if risks and inflation ease – CBR Official.
- PBoC: Yuan remains within reasonable range.
- S. Africa’s Rand weakens more than one percent against dollar to 15.3105 in thin trade following long weekend.
- South Korean won closes onshore trade at 1,165.4 per dollar vs 1,167.8 at previous close.
- Danish debit card pre-christmas sales rise 6.6 pct y/y to 29.6 bln dkk – NETS.
Economic Data Ahead
- (1000ET/1530 GMT) The Dallas Fed releases the Manufacturing Business Index for month of December, which slipped to 4.9 in the previous month.
Key Events AheadNo Major Events ScheduledEquities RecapDue to thin trades in holiday season, European and Asian stocks dropped, hit by sliding oil prices and Chinese growth worries and finances.Germany’s DAX rose 0.2 pct, France’s CAC 40 surged 0.1 pct and Spain’s IBEX remained steady.Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.6 pct, with soft domestic production and retail data pointing more pressure on BoJ to take further steps to stimulate growth. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost early modest gains to fall half a pct, putting it on track for an 11-pct loss this year.China’s SSEC and CSI300 fell 2.6 and 2.9 pct respectively, with banking shares driving the decline. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1 pct. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 1.3 pct.Commodities RecapOil slipped towards $37 a barrel, trading within sight of an 11-year low, pressured by excess supply that has more than halved prices since the downturn began in mid-2014. Brent crude fell 68 cents at $37.21 a barrel at 0949 GMT. While U.S. crude fell 69 cents at $37.41. Gold dropped following lower oil prices, the weak dollar and thin liquidity in Asian equities kept the metal price’s moves muted. Spot gold eased 0.2 percent to $1,073.10 an ounce by 0702 GMT. Silver dropped nearly 1 percent to $14.21.Treasuries RecapUS 10 year Treasury yield stood at 2.2889, rising by 0.046 pct.German 10-year Bund yields dropped 2 bps to 0.60 pct.JGB prices closed the day unchanged to modestly higher, pushing yields down by 0.5bp to 1bp from yesterday’s afternoon close.UK markets closed on account of Boxing Day.Australian markets will remain closed on Monday after Friday’s Christmas holiday.FX BeatUSD: The dollar moved away from a 2-month low against the yen on Monday, while a resumption in oil sell-off hit linked currencies including the Australian and Canadian dollars around a third of a percent lower. Against the yen, the dollar was last up just over 0.1 percent at 120.62 yen, off a session low of 120.17 yen as well as its Friday low of 120.05 yen. The dollar index was broadly flat at 97.965. EUR/USD: The euro added about 0.1 percent against the dollar, changing hands at $1.0977. It has broken minor resistance 1.09840 and jumped till 1.09899. The pair’s major resistance is around 1.1000 and any break above 1.100 will take the pair to 1.1060/1.1090 level. On the downside minor support is around 1.0950 and break below targets 1.0920/1.0880. The common currency inched higher 0.4 percent against the yen to 132.19. USD/JPY: The pair has broken minor support at 120.70 and declined till 120.10. It was trading around 120.54, short term trend is still weak as long as resistance 121.50 holds. On the higher side any break above 121.50 targets 122/122.25. Major support is at 120 and break below targets 119.25/118.60.GBP/USD: Cable has retreated slightly after making a high of 1.4945 on Thursday and was trading around 1.49147. The pair is facing resistance around 1.4950 and break above targets 1.5010/1.5060. On the lower side major support is around 1.4890 and break below targets 1.4850/1.4800 level. Overall bullish invalidation is only above 1.5100.USD/CHF: The pair has formed a temporary bottom around 0.9850 and slightly jumped till 0.9945 yesterday. It was trading at 0.9858, resistance is at 0.9950 and break above targets 1/1.0030 level. On the lower side support is at 0.9850 and break below will drag the pair down till 0.9820/0.9780 is possible. Overall bullish invalidation is only below 0.9780.AUD/USD: Australia and the key London market in currencies were among those still closed for local holidays and the major dealing rooms across Europe were empty or operating on skeleton staffing. The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to $0.7258 and is consolidating in narrow range between 0.72805 and 0.7255 for the past two trading sessions. The pair’s resistance is around 0.7285 and any break above 0.7285 will take the pair till 0.7335/0.7380. On the lower side minor support is around 0.7240 and any break below will target 0.7200/0.7170. Short term weakness is only below 0.7150. USD/CAD: Canadian dollar dropped 0.3 percent to $1.3856, heading back towards this month’s 11-year lows.
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