Market Roundup
- EUR/USD falls toward 7 month low at 1.0565. Plays 1.0627-1.0600.
- Dollar index off Wed 100.170 8-1/2 month peak. 99.714/99.907 range.
- EUR/CHF rallies to fresh highs at 1.0868 from 1.0842. EUR/GBP also up 0.7018/42.
- Czech CB’s Rusnok: Exit from EUR/CZK floor now likely around end-2016.
- South Africa Oct PPI mm increases to 0.9% (forecast 0.45%) vs previous 0.30%, yy increases to 4.2% (forecast 3.70%) vs previous 3.60%.
- Eurozone Oct Money-M3 annual growth increases to 5.3% (forecast 4.9%) vs previous 4.9%.
- Eurozone Oct Loans to households increase to 1.2 % vs previous 1.1 %.
- Australia Q3 Plant/Machinery Capex decreases to -8.2 % (forecast -1.0 %) vs previous -1.2 %.
- Australia Q3 Building Capex decreases to -9.8% (forecast -5.5%) vs previous -5.6%.
- Australia Q3 Capital Expenditure decreases to -9.2 % (forecast -3.0%) vs previous -4.0%.
- Fitch sees Brazil most vulnerable among big emerging markets to losing investment grade, will assess early next year.
- S.Africa’s Q4 Business Confidence Index falls to 36 from 38 in Q3 – RMB/BER.
- S.Africa’s September Import Unit value at -5.9 pct y/y vs -6.4 pct in August – Stats SA.
- S.Africa’s September Export Unit value at -3.1 pct y/y vs -4.6 pct in August- Stats SA.
- Swedish CBanker Skingsley says still room for more rate cuts and to buy more bonds.
- Swedish CBank’s Ohlsson expects crown to get stronger in coming years.
- Swedish CBanker Skingsley says no automatic coupling between what ECB does and riksbank’s action.
- Swedish Cbank’s Ohlsson says desirable to have inflation expecations increasing toward target.
- Spain final Q3 GDP 0.8 pct q/q (forecast 0.8 pct, preliminary 0.8 pct), 3.4 pct y/y (forecast 3.4 pct, preliminary 3.4 pct)- INE.
- Swedish Household Lending +7.2 pct yr/yr in October – Stats Office.
- Hong kong October Imports -8.5 pct from a year earlier, exports -3.7 pct from a year earlier.
- Swedish Exports +103.1 bln SEK in Oct from revised +105.4 bln in Sept, Imports +104.0 bln SEK in Oct from revised +102.2 bln in Sept – SCB.
- Swedish October Trade Balance -0.9 bln SEK.
- Swiss Industrial Orders -5.1 yr/yr in Q3.
- Singapore Oct Industrial Production +2.5 pct m/m seasonally adjusted, -5.4 pct y/y.
- Kremlin says sanctions against Turkey not considered, awaits realistic response.
Economic Data AheadThursday, November 26th, 2015U.S. markets are closed on Thursday, Nov. 26, for Thanksgiving Day.
- (0730 ET/1230 GMT) Brazil’s Central Bank will release its current account deficit for the month of October, which is likely to have widened to 3.7 bln from a deficit of 3.076 in September. While foreign direct investment likely slipped to $6.00 bln in October from $6.037 bln.
Friday, November 27th, 2015
- (0730 ET/1230 GMT) Brazil’s Treasury releases its monthly report on the central government budget, a leading indicator of consolidated budget data.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Statistics Canada releases its industrial product price index for the month of October, which is expected to have fallen 0.1 pct after dropping 0.3 pct in September.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) Mexico’s statistics agency releases trade balance data for October. In non-seasonally adjusted terms, Mexico is expected to record a $1.785 billion trade deficit for the month. Mexico’s unemployment rate is also likely to have dropped 4.3 percent in October.
- Chile central bank publishes the minutes from its last monetary policy meeting, when it held the rate at 3.25 percent.
Key Events AheadNo Major Events Scheduled due to U.S. Market Holiday.FX BeatUSD: Expectations for a divergence in monetary policy has pushed the gap between short-dated bond yields in the U.S. and Germany to their widest since 2006, supported the dollar. The dollar index scaled an 8-1/2-month high of 100.170 overnight. It last stood at 99.863.EUR/USD: The euro was under pressure a day after ECB officials told Reuters that they are considering options such as staggered charges on banks hoarding cash and buying more debt ahead of next week’s ECB meeting. It slipped back towards 7-month lows, by falling about 0.2 pct to $1.0609, having tumbled on Wednesday to $1.0565, its lowest level since mid-April. The pair has slightly recovered till 1.06415 and was trading at 1.06118. Major intraday resistance is around 1.0647 (Kijun-Sen) and any break above confirms very minor bullishness, a jump till 1.0690 (trend line joining 1.0829 and 1.07628)/1.0720 is possible. On the downside watch out 1.0556 (trend line joining 1.06731 and 1.06168) for further weakness and break below targets 1.0500 is possible. Against the yen, it was trading 0.2 pct lower at 130 yen, having hit a 7-month low of 129.77 on Wednesday.USD/JPY: The pair recovered till 122.93 after making a low of 122.25 and was trading around 122.57. Overall trend is weak as long as resistance 123.60 holds. Any break above 123.60 will take the pair to new level 124.15/125. The pair’s minor resistance is around 123.20, on the downside major support is at 122.25 and break below targets 121.50/121.GBP/USD: Sterling slipped back towards a 7-month low against the dollar despite upbeat UK forecasts and a spending review by the finance minister the previous day not changing the view that interest rates will not rise any time soon. It fell 0.4 percent to $1.5068, taking it close to the 7-month low of $1.5027 hit earlier in the month. Cable has recovered till 1.51360 and was trading at 1.5075 and overall trend is bearish as long as resistance 1.5160. On the higher minor resistance is around 1.5160 and break above targets 1.5190/1.5220 (support turned into resistance). Major support is around 1.5050 and break below targets 1.5029/1.4980. Against the euro, it was down 0.2 percent at 70.33 pence. USD/CHF: The pair has broken temporary top around 1.02260 and jumped till 1.02600. It was trading at 1.02400, intraday support is around 1.0200 and break below will drag the pair till 1.0140 /1.0120. Overall bullish invalidation is only below 1.0120. Major resistance is around 1.0260 and break above targets 1.0280/1.0300.AUD/USD: The Australian dollar lost ground on surprisingly weak investment data which gave a sharp blow to the economic growth outlook. It dropped to $0.7215, from $0.7255 before the data and away from a 1-month peak of $0.7283 touched on Wednesday. Support was found around 72 cents. It has made a temporary top around 0.7282 and declined from that level. It has broken minor support 0.7225 and a decline till 0.7150 is possible. Any further bullishness can be seen only above 0.7300 and break above targets 0.7380. Short term bullish invalidation only below 0.7150. Aussie fell around 0.5 percent against the yen and slipped against the euro which rose to A$1.4694, from a five-month trough of A$1.4577 on Wednesday. NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar was steady in thin Thanksgiving trade. It was largely unchanged at $0.6577, having shrugged off October trade data that was mostly in line with expectations.Equities RecapEuropean shares rose on talks of aggressive stimulus from the European Central Bank next week grew. European FTSEurofirst 300 Index extended gains and was up 0.57 percent, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.1 pct, Britain’s FTSE 100 up 0.05 pct and France’s CAC 40 slumped 0.2 pct in early trades.Japan’s benchmark stock index closed 0.5 percent higher, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5 percent. China’s CSI300 Index ended down 0.6 pct at 3,759.43 points, Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.3 pct at 3,635.55 points and HK’s Hang Seng index remianed flat at 22,488.94 points.Commodities RecapOil dropped as fears of escalating violence causing supply disruption in the Middle East faded and focus returned to a persistent market glut and increased global output. Brent was down 46 cents to $45.71 a barrel at 0859 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 21 cents at $42.83 per barrel after the U.S. crude rose to $43.30 earlier the session.Gold was close to its lowest in nearly six years, as USD held at multi-month highs and U.S. economic data reinforced expectations of a rate hike this year. Spot gold climbed slightly to $1,072.70 an ounce, after falling 0.4 pct on Wednesday.Treasuries RecapU.S. 10-year Treasury yeild last stood at 2.2341.ECB easing expectations pushed German 5-year government bond yields to a new record low of -0.196 percent, while 2-year yields hovered just above lows of -0.418 percent.JGB prices closed the day slightly higher, pushing yields down by 0.5bp to 1bp from yesterday’s afternoon close in the 5-yr and longer zone. Yields on the current 20-yr, 30yr and 40-yr JGBs were little changed all through the session, while those on the current 10-yr JGBs moved in a very narrow range of 0.5bp. The current 5-yr JGBs saw little trade via JBT, the largest inter-dealer broker for JGB transactions.UK Gilts opened 3 ticks higher than the settlement of 118.07, as expected, as higher external core markets led the way underpinned by central bank sentiment. 10-year cash had 50% of October lows and November highs at 1.868% as support and former highs around the 1.90% as resistance.New Zealand government bonds rose slightly, with yields 3 bps lower across the curve. Australian government bond futures stretched gains, with the 3-year bond contract up 4 ticks at 97.930. The 10-year contract edged up 3.5 ticks to 97.1300, while the 20-year contract went 4.5 ticks higher at 96.6150.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com