Global macro overview for 24/11/2016:
The FOMC Meeting Minutes released yesterday provided another inside data regarding a possible interest rate hike in December. The FOMC officials agreed the case for tightening monetary policy continued to strengthen as they saw a rate hike appropriate ‘relatively soon’. Among all members, some argued a hike should come at December meeting to preserve FED’s credibility. Moreover, a few voting members were worried that if the FED would allow the jobless rate to fall too low, it might need to increase rates steeply and that could hurt expansion. In conclusion, the FOMC minutes have a much more cautious tone, but it came out just as expected: the possibility of a rate hike in December is almost certain and FedWatch Tool current rake hike probability is 95.3%.
Let’s now take a look at EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The market started to price in the possible interest rate hike much earlier, so now the move is already in assets’ prices. This is why the EUR/USD pair is showing a positive divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator and the rebound should be expected any time soon. The next important resistnace is seen at the level of 1.0568 and 1.0665.
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