One day after a slump in Chinese trade sparked a global market selloff on concerns the world’s second biggest economy had once again hit a downward inflection point, overnight China surprised once again, this time to the upside when the latest inflationary data printed hotter than expected, sending European and Asian stocks higher and pushing the yen lower after China’s producer price index rose for the first time since March 2012, while the PBOC fixed the Yuan modestly higher ending a week-long series of declines tracking the stronger dollar and easing concerns of rising capital outflows.
- China CPI (Aug) Y/Y 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prey. 1.3%); 3-month high.
- China PPI (Aug) Y/Y 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prey. -0.8%); 1st increase in 55 months.
CPI inflation came in at 1.9% year-on-year in September, above market expectations and also higher than the level in August. Both a low base in the same period last year and a sequential price increase contributed to the higher headline CPI year-over-year growth. Food prices were higher (especially fresh vegetables and fruits) and nonfood CPI inflation also increased, driven by higher tourism and education prices. Core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) was 1.7% yoy in September, vs 1.6% in August.
PPI inflation was +0.1% yoy in September, the first positive reading since March 2012. This implies an annual rate of +3.3% (s.a.) in September, vs. +2.2% in August. The recent sequential pickup of headline PPI in 2016 has been due primarily to a depreciation of the RMB and recovery of oil prices. In addition, favorable base effects (falling oil prices over the course of 2015) have contributed to a moderation in year-on-year PPI deflation. Among major sub-industries, producer prices in smelting and pressing of ferrous metal rebounded visibly to 10.1% yoy from 6.5%yoy in August, and in coal mining and washing industry PPI inflation turned positive to +4.1% yoy, after 51 months of price contraction in year-over-year terms.
As Goldman wrote after the print, policymakers have likely tried to fine-tune the degree of stimulus in September, dialing back a little from the relatively aggressive easing stance and strong growth in August. Targeted tightening measures especially on the property market have been rolled out by the local governments, in an attempt to curb the fast upturn of property prices.
And while some analysts predicted that the rebound in inflation would mean less monetary stimulus out of the PBOC, Goldman was not so sure: “we do not think the recent higher CPI and PPI readings should trigger a sharp turn in monetary policy/overall policy stance, as overall inflation remains mild, and the recently higher CPI and PPI readings are partly driven by the low base last year. We continue to expect supportive fiscal and credit policies going into Q4. “
Others were simply happy to watch the market reaction: “The turn up in China PPI is indicative of receding deflation risks globally,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees about $121 billion. “It’s another sign that global deflation is fading. Today’s data was certainly a lot stronger than I thought it would be.
“The turnaround seems to have happened in Asia,” said Frances Hudson, an Edinburgh-based global thematic strategist at Standard Life Investments, which oversees 269 billion pounds ($328 billion). “Following the data on producer prices, we are getting a strong performance from miners. At this stage, any kind of inflation is welcome.”
In other headline news, HP announced plans to cut up to 4,000 job cuts, Reuters reports Hershey CEO preparing to step down.
As a result of the Chinese data, Asian stocks snapped a while stock in Thailand surged on prospects for a smooth transition following the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. European shares were close to erasing a weekly decline and emerging markets also rebounded on China’s hotter than expected inflation, even if there . Crude oil extended a fourth week of gains in the longest winning streak since April. The yen fell with bonds as demand for havens eased. Thailand’s stocks jumped the most in three years and currency surged on prospects for a smooth transition of power after the king’s death.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.2 percent at 10:11 a.m. in London, leaving it down less than 0.1 percent in the week. Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. contributed the most to gains among commodity producers. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.6 percent Man Group Plc jumped 16 percent, the most in almost six years, after it posted a 6 percent increase in funds under management for the quarter, announced a share buyback and said it will acquire Aalto Invest Holding AG to branch out into private market investing. Syngenta AG fell 2 percent on speculation that its $43 billion takeover by China National Chemical Corp. could be disrupted after a person familiar with the matter said China is planning to merge the buyer with another state-owned entity, Sinochem Group. In Shanghai, ChemChina’s Aeolus Tyre Co. rose 3.8 percent and Sinochem International Corp. jumped 10 percent.
Among the banking sector, Banco Popolare SC and Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl rose the most among the biggest European banks on optimism that shareholders will this weekend back their merger to create Italy’s third-largest lender.
S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.4%, erasing the previou day’s losses. In commodities, oil climbed 1.2 percent rising above $51.00 a barrel. Distillate and gasoline supplies declined as refineries processed less crude, while inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell to the lowest level since December.
Data on Friday will include retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment. Earnings will also be in focus. While analysts are forecasting a 1.6 percent contraction in third-quarter profits for S&P 500 members, U.S. firms have beaten projections by an average margin of 3.6 percentage points in the past five years. Investor attention will turn Friday to earnings from companies including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. as well as data on retail sales before Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at a conference in Boston.
Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk
- Encouraging data from China overnight in the form of CPI and PPI has lifted sentiment this morning, with European bourses supported by the upside in material names
- Some early signs that the USD rally is suffering some exhaustion, with EUFt/USD finding bids ahead of 1.1000 while Cable dips into the 1.2100’s are bought up
- Looking ahead, highlights include U. of Michigan, Retail Sales and PPI and comments from Fed Chair Yellen
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2136
- Stoxx 600 up 1.1% to 339
- FTSE 100 up 0.7% to 7023
- DAX up 1.2% to 10535
- German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.06%
- Italian 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.39%
- Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.13%
- S&P GSCI Index up 0.6% to 378.1
- MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 138
- Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 16856
- Hang Seng up 0.9% to 23233
- Shanghai Composite up less than 0.1% to 3064
- S&P/ASX 200 down less than 0.1% to 5434
- US 10-yr yield up 3bps to 1.77%
- Dollar Index up 0.32% to 97.83
- WTI Crude futures up 1% to $50.96
- Brent Futures up 0.7% to $52.39
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,257
- Silver spot up 0.2% to $17.53
Global Headline News
- HP Plans Up to 4,000 Job Cuts Over Three Years Amid PC Slump: Plans to cut 3,000 to 4,000 jobs over the next three years, restructuring may generate $300m in savings in 2020
- Hershey CEO Bilbrey Preparing to Step Down, Reuters Reports: Board has formed committee to seek successor, report says
- China Said to Be Planning Mega-Merger of Sinochem, ChemChina: Deal would combine giants with >$100b in assets; Syngenta Falls as ChemChina Said to Plan Merger With Sinochem
- Apollo Said Close to Deal for Anglo’s Australian Coal Mines: Apollo and Xcoal Energy are poised to buy Anglo American’s Australian metallurgical coal assets, agreement may ultimately value mines at more than $1.5b
- McDonald’s Global Shake-Up Will Add $130 Million in Expenses: To Take 12c/share restructuring charge in 3Q
- Boeing’s Head Salesman Said to Retire as China Veteran Ascends: Mounir said to succeed Wojick as top global sales executive
- Trump Said to Block Campaign’s Requests to Do Self- Opposition Research: Rebuffed political aides’ requests to research his past, people familiar with the matter said
- Bristol-Myers Asked to Seek Special Coverage for Opdivo in U.K.: Opdivo not cost-effective for all lung-cancer patients: NICE
- PepsiCo Said to Near Deal to Buy KeVita: Reuters: May be finalized as early as this month and likely value co. at less than $500m, Reuters reports
- NY Pension Fund Said to Demand 10% Return From Hedge Funds: NYP: State’s $178.6b pension privately told hedge funds in recent weeks must earn minimum 10% annual return: New York Post
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Looking at regional markets, Asia stocks shrugged off the weak Wall Street close and traded with mild gains, as the region gets to digest more data from China. ASX 200 (Unch.) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) were initially both higher, although weakness in mining names capped advances in Australia, while Japanese stocks traded choppy alongside JPY movements. Hang Seng was supported after firmer than expected Chinese CPI and PPI figures as CPI printed a 3-month high and PPI rose for the first time in 55 months.
- Chinese CPI (Aug) Y/Y 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prey. 1.3%); 3-month high.
- Chinese PPI (Aug) Y/Y 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prey. -0.8%); 1st increase in 55 months.
However, Shanghai Comp failed to benefit as the firmer data along with recent measures dampened prospects of future PBoC easing, while the central bank also conducted a net weekly drain of CNY 410bIn. 10-year JGBs were uneventful with demand dampened due to improvement in risk appetite in Asia, while the result of today’s 5-year auction was stronger as laic, lowest price and average price all exceeded the prior month resulting to mild outperformance in the belly.
Top Asian News
- China Sees First Factory-Gate Inflation in Almost Five Years: PPI rose 0.1% y/y in Sept., first gain since January 2012
- Infosys Cuts Sales Forecast Again as Clients Trim Spending: CEO Vishal Sikka stands by $20b revenue goal by 2020
- Oil From $50b Kazakh Kashagan Field Starts Flowing for Export: 7,700 tons of crude shipped to Caspian Pipeline Consortium network
- Singapore Withholds Stimulus, Reserving Tools as GDP Shrinks: Manufacturing plunges 17.4%; services industry declines 1.9%
- Thai Prince Awaits Crown, Groomed Since Birth for Throne: Vajiralongkorn is the sole son of King Bhumibol Adulyadej
- SoftBank Tech Fund to Invest Up to $100 Billion With Saudis: Japanese internet company will put in $25 billion over 5 years
As in Asia, so in Europe encouraging data from China overnight in the form of CPI and PPI has lifted sentiment this morning, with European bourses supported by the upside in material names, which have also staged a recovery from yesterday’s losses. As such, the FTSE 100 has reclaimed the 7,000 level, while the index has also been buoyed by gains in supermarket giant Tesco after the retailer settled a dispute with Unilever over prices. In credit markets, bond yields are a touch firmer with prices pressured by the improved risk sentiment. Additionally, Gilts yet again underperform against its counterparts as the rating agency S&P hints at another downgrade from the AA sovereign after highlighting risks to the economy’s future growth amid negotiations with the EU. Gold (-0.1%) saw minor losses amid improvement in risk sentiment while remained near yesterday’s lows alongside weakness across the metals complex.
Top European News
- VW Fails to End Europe Market-Share Drop a Year After Crisis: September sales rose 5.6% versus market’s 7.3% gain; EU28 September Car Registrations Rise 7.2% Y/y to 1.455m Units
- UniCredit Plans to Raise Up to $14 Billion, Repubblica Says: Increase is part of a plan that will be presented on Dec. 13, the newspaper reported on Friday
- Banco Popolare Sells EU618m NPL Portfolio to Hoist Finance Unit
- Ericsson Credit Rating Cut by Moody’s as Crisis Intensifies: Rating was reduced one level to Baa2 from Baa1
- Man Group Soars on Quarterly Asset Growth That Beats Estimates: Net inflows were $1.3b in 3Q as investors allocated money to its computer-driven hedged and long only funds
- Marmite Skirmish Averted Won’t Stop Brexit Biting Retailers: Asda cuts price on Unilever’s spread after Tesco feud settled
- BOE Says Mortgage Demand Fell ‘Significantly’ in 3Q: Says both demand for prime and buy-to-let lending decreased significantly.
- Spotify Co-Founder Lorentzon Steps Down as Company Chairman: Will remain at the Swedish music startup as vice chairman
In FX, the yen fell against all of its 16 major counterparts, dropping 0.5 percent to 104.21 per dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent, extending this week’s advance to 0.7 percent. The pound fell, extending its October decline to almost 5.7 percent. Thailand’s baht led emerging-market currencies higher, gaining 0.9 percent, the most in a year and paring this week’s slide to 1.1 percent. The SET Index jumped 4.2 percent after slumping for the first three days of the week. Financial markets in the Southeast Asian nation are open as usual Friday following the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Thursday. Thailand’s government called on the nation to avoid “joyful events” for 30 days, to dress in mourning for a year and pray for the king’s soul to protect the nation. It also signaled the 88-year-old king’s only son will take the throne.
In commodities, oil climbed 1.2 percent rising above $51.00 a barrel. Distillate and gasoline supplies declined as refineries processed less crude, while inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell to the lowest level since December, according to an Energy Information Administration report Thursday. Industrial metals were broadly higher in Shanghai and London. Aluminum in China rose to the highest level in almost five months, following a rise in the local spot price amid a new Chinese regulation that clamps down on truck overloading, which is disrupting deliveries. Gold slipped in London trading, giving back gains from Thursday.
Looking at the day ahead, in the US, along with the September retail sales numbers we’ll also receive the September PPI report where the headline is expected to have risen +0.2% mom, and also the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The consensus is for a modest 0.6pt increase in the headline sentiment print. Other data due out in the US includes the August business inventories print and finally the September Monthly Budget Statement. Away from the data, along with Fed Chair Yellen speaking this evening we will also hear from Rosengren at 1.30pm at the same conference. The BoE’s Forbes speaks at a conference around lunchtime too. The other focus today is of course on earnings with Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citibank all reporting.
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US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Boston
- 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance m/m, Sept., est. 0.6% (prior -0.3%)
- 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Sept., est. 0.2% (prior 0%)
- 10am: Business Inventories, Aug., est. 0.1% (prior 0%)
- 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, Oct P, est. 91.9 (prior 91.2)
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
- 1:30pm: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Boston
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DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Life can carry on as normal here in the UK as ‘Marmitegate’ has been resolved as the largest food retailer has put it back on the shelves after a 24 hour dispute with its supplier. This has been a fascinating story that will rumble on and on as at some point soon shoppers are going to face a big rise in the cost of their basic products given the significant post Brexit fall in Sterling. It seems for now prices have not climbed but surely it can’t be long. Maybe the best trade you can do at the moment is to stock up on all the non-perishable items that will eventually be forced up in price once stocks have been depleted or contracts renegotiated. Given my wife’s obsession with Ben and Jerry’s (one of the other products that was temporarily withdrawn) it might be prudent to buy a chest freezer for the garage and stock up this weekend.
Today the main event will probably be Yellen’s speech at 6.30pm BST where she is the keynote speaker at the annual economics conference hosted by the Boston Fed. The conference topic is ‘The Elusive Great Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics”. It’s unclear what she’ll say about the current outlook but clearly the market will be looking for any policy morsels, especially after the minutes on Wednesday night. Possibly more important will be the triple hit of US bank earnings with JPM, Citibank and Wells Fargo reporting either just before or at the opening bell. With all the attention on financials of late these results will give us a good guide to earnings on both sides of the Atlantic for the sector. If that’s not enough we have US retail sales as the main data event of the day. While the data only captures about one quarter of the consumer spending data that are used in GDP, the figures are important in showing us the state of underlying spending in the US economy. The market is expecting a decent bounceback in September. The headline print is expected to increase +0.6% mom while the ex auto and ex auto and gas components are expected to increase +0.5% mom and +0.3% mom respectively. The important control group component is also expected to have increased +0.4% mom.
So between the packed schedule today and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, markets yesterday were caught in a bit of a vacuum. Instead investors were left to feed off that soft China export data nearly 24 hours ago which seemed to reinvigorate some concern about the world’s second largest economy. Europe followed the risk off lead from Asia with the Stoxx 600 edging -0.87% lower. Across the pond the S&P 500 initially opened down as much as -1.16% with financials under pressure ahead of today’s bank earnings, but the index then rallied back into the close to pare the bulk of that decline and finish -0.31% as defensive sectors led the rebound. As we noted yesterday, while clearly still of significant importance, that China trade data does have a tendency to be quite volatile month to month. However it lines the market up for a busy next five days of data in China culminating with the Q3 GDP print on Wednesday.
On that note, this morning the latest inflation numbers are out in China. Headline CPI rose to +1.9% yoy in September from +1.3% in August. Expectations were for +1.6% and that reading is the highest since June. Meanwhile, producer prices surged last month. The +0.1% yoy reading (vs. -0.3% expected) compares to -0.8% yoy in August and marks the first time in 54 months that annual factory gate prices have risen. The MoM reading for PPI was +0.5%.
In terms of the market reaction, it’s been a bit of a reversal of yesterday’s price action with China bourses lower but Asia ex-China equity markets gaining. The Shanghai Comp is currently -0.53% while the Hang Seng (+0.58%), Nikkei (+0.41%), Kospi (+0.52%) and ASX (+0.05%) have all gained. The Aussie Dollar is up while other emerging market currencies have strengthened with Oil. Also of note was data in Singapore this morning where Q3 GDP printed at a seasonally adjusted QoQ rate of -4.1% (vs. 0.0% expected). That is the steepest fall since Q3 2012. Despite that data, the MAS held stimulus unchanged this morning.
There are also a couple of interesting micro level stories out there this morning. According to Bloomberg, China is planning to merge SOE’s Sinochem Group and China National Chemical Corp. Shares of Sinochem are up close to 10% following the news. Also Japan telecom giant Softbank announced that it is to form a tech focused investment fund which could manage up to $100bn with Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund being a lead partner.
In one final mention of China for today, yesterday DB’s Chief Economist for China, Zhiwei Zhang, published an update to his special report on China’s property bubble. He notes that the Shanghai government has tightened credit supply for developers over the past week. In particular, the government tightened regulation on property developers’ financing of land purchase. Developers are not allowed to buy land using financing from banks, trust, capital market, asset management companies or insurance companies. They need to commit in land auctions that they will only use their own funds to buy land. Zhiwei sees this as a significant step by the government to contain the property bubble and shows that the government has become aware of the problem, and have started to take tough actions to stop it. He expects other cities to follow suit. A link to the report for those interested is attached here.
Back to markets yesterday. Given the broadly risk-off moves, it was a stronger day in rates with 10y Treasury yields closing nearly 3bps lower at 1.742%, while 10y Bunds were down a similar amount to 0.036%. The US Dollar was actually close to half a percent weaker although that did follow a gain of nearly +1.50%. Gold was a touch higher while WTI (+0.52%) rebounded modestly following two days of consecutive declines. Credit indices in both Europe and the US generally pared earlier losses into the close. The more notable news in credit markets perhaps was the latest corporate bond holdings data out of the Bank of England. The BoE confirmed that it held £1.042bn of corporate bonds at the close on Wednesday. That compares to the £507m it held in the first week so the strong run rate has continued for a second week. As a reminder the initial aim was to buy £10bn over 18 months so they are well ahead on a run rate basis. It clearly also raises the question of a possible increase in the total quantum of purchases being targeted. So far though the BoE is certainly putting forward a big statement.
Staying in the UK, at yesterday’s SNP party conference, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed that she will publish a draft Scottish Independence Referendum Bill next week. Sturgeon said ‘I am determined that Scotland will have the ability to reconsider the question of independence – and to do so before the UK leaves the EU – if that is necessary to protect our country’s interests’. According to the FT Sturgeon also pledged to issue specific proposals to keep Scotland in the single market as well as also calling for new powers over immigration and international relations. While we’re on the Brexit theme, EU President Donald Tusk was as black or white as one can be with his comments yesterday at a conference in Brussels. Tusk said that ‘the only real alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit, even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility’. He also said that ‘the essence of Brexit as defined in the UK referendum campaign‘ means ‘radically loosening relations with the EU, a de facto hard Brexit’. Tusk also offered a slightly different perspective on how he saw things, saying that a hard Brexit will be a loss for everyone and that ‘there will be no cakes on the table for anyone’ but rather ‘only salt and vinegar’. Whatever that means.
Before we look at today’s calendar, the data didn’t add much to the debate yesterday. Initial jobless claims printed a little better than expected at 246k although that was unchanged on the prior week, while the US import price index rose a little bit less than expected last month (+0.2% mom vs. +0.1% expected). Philadelphia Fed President Harker (hawkish leaning non-voter) also spoke and said that ‘what I’m worried about is, depending on the outcome of the election and what happens after that, if there are policies that would have distortive effects that we would have to respond to’. Given that, Harker thinks it may be prudent ‘to wait until we resolve some of that uncertainty’.
Looking at the day ahead now, this morning in Europe it’s fairly quiet with just the Euro area trade data for August due out, although the BoE’s Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys should be worth keeping an eye on when it gets released at 9.30am BST. This afternoon in the US, along with the September retail sales numbers we’ll also receive the September PPI report where the headline is expected to have risen +0.2% mom, and also the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The consensus is for a modest 0.6pt increase in the headline sentiment print. Other data due out in the US includes the August business inventories print and finally the September Monthly Budget Statement. Away from the data, along with Fed Chair Yellen speaking this evening we will also hear from Rosengren at 1.30pm at the same conference. The BoE’s Forbes speaks at a conference around lunchtime too. The other focus today is of course on earnings with Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citibank all reporting.
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