Gold & Crude Oil: The Weekly Technical Outlook

$GLD, $USO, $OIL

COMEX Gold

The rally in Gold resumed last week by taking out the resistance at 1263.9.

An extension of the Gold price rally is expected this week with a move toward the 61.8% Fibo projection of 1045.4 to 1263.9 from 1225.1 at 1360.1.

A clear break of support at 1225.1 is needed to indicate a near term topping. Baring that, my outlook remains Bullish in case of a retreat.

The big picture

The rebound from the medium term low at 1045.4 is still in progress and should extend North. Technically not treating at move as a trend reversal just yet. Instead, price actions from 1045.4 is seen as developing into a sideway consolidative pattern.

So, expecting strong resistance from 38.2% fibo retracement of 1923.7 to 1045.4 at 1380.9 to limit the Northside and bring on a near term reversal.

The long term picture

Current development indicates that Gold would consolidate above 1045.4, the medium term bottom in here.

Still see the fall from 1923.7 as a long term correction. And, see a possible decline into 681/1033.9 support zone, with 61.8% Fibo retracement of 253.2 to 1923.7 at 891.3 inside.

But, a clear break of Fibo mark 1380.9 will indicate that Gold price actions from 1923.7 are developing into a sideway pattern.

COMEX Gold Continuous Contract Daily

COMEX Gold Monthly Continuous Contract

WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil’s rally from 26.05 continued last week and the break of the resistance at 34.82 looks to have completed a Double Bottom reversal pattern.

Stronger rise should be seen to 38.2% Fibo retracement of 62.58 to 26.05 at 40.00 1st.

A clear break there targets 61.8% Fibo retracement at 48.63.

On the Southside

Sustained trading below 4 hours 55-Day MA now at 33.58 is needed to be the 1st sign of the finish of the rebound. Baring that the near term outlook Bullish on a retreat.

The big picture

Current development suggest that a medium term bottom is possibly in place at 26.05 on Bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD.

This is inline with the view that 17.12/37.0 is a Key long term support zone.

This move may target the 55-Weeks MA now at 46.68. I expect strong resistance from the 38.2% Fibo retracement of 107.73 to 26.05 at 57.25 to limit any Northside. Crude Oil should then turn into a sideway pattern with 22-26 at the low

The long term picture

Crude Oil drew support from 17.12/37.0 support zone to form a medium term bottom at 26.05. So, now expect medium term long term sideway action.

NYMEX Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours

NYMEX Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily

NYMEX Crude Oil Continuous Contract Weekly

NYMEX Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly

Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a tech trader.

Have a terrific week.

HeffX-LTN

Paul Ebeling

 

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