GOP Short Term Winner In The Burwell Ruling
Most Republican politicians talked about and over the Supreme Court’s King v. Burwell ruling Thursday, the GOP is the almost certainly the short-term winner from the 6-3 decision upholding the federal subsidies portion of Barack Obamacare.
According to a group of national political analysts, the high court has taken the burden off Republican members of Congress for coming up with an alternative to replace the subsidies that would have been killed by an opposite ruling.
But, the same analysts agreed that with more people signed up for Barack Obamacare by Y 2016, after 5 years and 2 favorable court decisions, it might be more difficult for the eventual Republican presidential nominee to argue for its repeal and replacement.
“Burwell was a big victory for Obama himself, which makes most Republican leaders angry,” the head of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California said. “But they are privately breathing a sigh of relief.
“They know it is also a big win for Republicans in Congress and an even bigger win for the Republican candidates.
“Now they can argue against Obamacare and talk about how to replace it. But they can have that argument without worrying about the public backlash that would come from voters afraid of losing subsidies for their coverage.” “….puts the debate back in the realm of politics without the real-world urgency.”
G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, agreed.
“Yes, despite all the rhetoric, Republicans have gotten a break here,” Madonna told us.
“With a ruling hostile to the administration, Republicans would have had to come up with a plan to cover 8.7 million folks now getting the subsidy with a private sector plan. So far, they have not done that.”
The Burwell Decision “frees Republicans from the difficult task of formulating a single response,” said Washington Examiner columnist Michael Barone, principal author of the “Almanac of American Politics.”
“This (Burwell) avoids what could be a year-long fight between congressional Republicans and a veto-threatening President Obama.” Republican agreed with this assessment of a short-term gain for their party.
Burwell gives Republicans some breathing room as it pushes the issue of healthcare into the election cycle.
The pro-Barack Obamacare ruling “energizes conservative groups to continue the fight and reinforces the attitude of several Republican presidential candidates, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz to call for repeal of Barack Obamacare.
This is the 2nd time that Chief Justice John Roberts has shocked conservatives with his interpretation of the Constitution, and he seems to be channeling another Republican-appointed chief justice, Earl Warren.
But both Republican operatives and political analysts agreed that the passage of time could weaken the drive to repeal and replace Barack Obamacare as a major issue for Republicans.
“In the long term, this could get real thorny for Republicans,” former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said. “Given that it’s been five years since the law was passed, there have now been 2 Supreme Court rulings upholding the law and millions of Americans are currently accessing healthcare. What a Republican president and Congress say to a mom who has healthcare for her kids for the first time will matter.”
According to Mr. Steele, “The danger remains: What will they replace Obamacare with and how will a very suspicious general election voter view their answer?”
Colorado State Republican Chairman Ryan Call said that “Americans understand that if Hillary Clinton becomes the next president, the chance of repealing and replacing Obamacare is exactly zero.”
Although Mr. Call strongly believes “every one of the Republican candidates running for president stands to gain from Burwell,” he warned that “this will happen only if those candidates offer more than shallow sound bites and right-wing rhetoric.”
Have a terrific week.
HeffX-LTN
Paul Ebeling
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