FXStreet (Edinburgh) – Analysts at Deutsche Bank reviewed the potential scenarios for the Greek referendum on Sunday.
Key Quotes
“The outcomes for Greece are unappetising, whichever direction is taken. A “NO” to Europe unlocks the unknown that could culminate in the dreaded Grexit”.
“The markets were becalmed because the weight of expectation is currently skewed toward a “YES”. Belief in Draghi’s “whatever it takes” has drilled its way into the collective consciousness over the last few years. A “YES”, however (unless there is a dramatic u-turn before midnight tonight), will be for an obsolete package that will need to be replaced by something far more repressive still, given the constantly deteriorating fiscal outlook”.
“If 70% were in favour of staying within the EUR a few weeks ago, that number has probably decayed today and upon the imposition of yet harsher terms, will probably erode to below 50% sometime in the near future, even if the populace belatedly embraces the terms and and conditions of the Troika (again rebranded as part of a new penal code)”.
“Unless the EU chooses write downs (and the Pandoras box that route entails), the “YES” and “NO” votes are really a choice between frying pans and fires”.
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)