While Russia’s monthly indicators released for Q1 15 highlighted pronounced negative dynamics, the initial estimates of quarterly GDP do not seem that bad (Rosstat: -1.9% yoy, SG: -2.7% yoy, CNS: -2.6% yoy). With contraction in household consumption as sizeable as it was, a weaker decline in investment and a remarkable adjustment in external trade on the side of imports must have played their part. As of today, Societe Generale still anticipates a GDP contraction of 3.5% in 2015, north of the market consensus (-4.0% yoy).
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