Is the third GOLD Short trade going to be successful too?

Is the third GOLD Short trade going to be successful too?

GOLD / U.S. DOLLAR FX_IDC:XAUUSD


Dear Colleagues

I hope you are well.

After having two successful GOLD             Short trades, here I present the third Short trade on Gold             . Do not forget to LIKE it if you enjoyed this analysis.

Also see the two wining Gold             short trades in Other Published Ideas.

All right, Let’s start. Since 17 April USD has risen up and just recently there has been a doubt whether this strength would continue or it may simply reverse. I have been waiting for days to answer this question and eventually I think I have the answer. Dollar will rise and trend continuation is our plan.

So why I am going to Short GOLD?

When Dollar appreciates, Gold             price goes down and that is why I had two wining trades on Gold             since 17 April simply because we have stronger Dollar. Yesterday Trump’s respond to Iran deal also apparently has been good enough to boost Dollar again.

Anyway.

Here are the reasons that I think we can have the third back to back successful trade on GOLD             Short.

1) I would start with USD 10 Y BONDS. An opposite direction is expected. To have a good GOLD             Short trade we need a stronger USD and to have a stronger USD we have to have a falling US Bonds. Here we are…

See how much downside room it has!

2) TNX             is the US Yield and the same direction with USD is expected. See how it bounced off the EMAs and the support. See the weekly first

and now daily

I have the highs of 2016 of 3.04% of interest as the major resistance. TNX             touched it but did not break it and bounce. Now it is heading up again and would be interesting to see what is going to happen. Sorry I have to show you another screenshot where you can see what an important year is this year for TNX             .
False breakout of the lows (see bold dotted line) plus Inverted H&S and a break of a decades old falling trend line .

3) Next one is Weighted Average USD. This chart has been struggling to break the falling trend line for a few days and just recently it made it or if you doubt about this see the above chart and they have convinced me that this break is legitimate.

4) DXY             also delivers the same message and I am less worry about DXY             as it can goes a lot higher. The reason for that is that 57% of that is EURO             and I am bearish on EURO             too. So thanks to EURO             for helping us to place this Gold             Short trade.

5) US Bond futures also breaking the first layer of the support. The lower it goes the stronger USD would be.

6) Not to forget that NIKKEI has a direction correlation with USD. It recently made and Inverted H&S and broke the neckline and tested the neckline and now heading higher. Great for USD and GOLD             .

7) Last one is weighted average YEN. An opposite relation between USD and YEN is expected. It is interesting that both of them have been rising recently, of course USD was a lot faster. YEN has a lot to fight if it wants to go higher and I am not going to present all the related charts. Just to give you an idea, YEN Yields, Bonds, Futures and NIKKEI are against a rising YEN. Then if YEN is supposed to fall, USD will rise. Do not forget to check out my UJ trade below. I am long from 107 and my target is 112.

Thanks for reviewing this post.
Do not forget to hit the like bottom if you enjoyed it.

KHAN