FXStreet (Barcelona) – Economists at Deutsche Bank preview the US data releases ahead the day – Chicago PMI and June Conference Board consumer confidence, and further expect both to show improvement.
Key Quotes
“This morning’s Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expected to show further modest improvement in part because of the recent strength in motor vehicle activity. In principle, the auto industry’s proximity to Chicago should be a source of strength. Recall that in May, motor vehicle sales totaled 17.8 million units, the best showing since July 2005 (20.7 million). While we expect some slowing in June sales—the June unit motor vehicle sales data (17.1M vs. 17.8M) are released throughout the day on Wednesday—local area production should get a modest boost. Depending on the Chicago results, we will revisit our ISM forecast.”
“Shortly after the Chicago PMI data, we get June Conference Board consumer confidence (96.0 vs. 95.4). The series is expected to show continued grinding improvement, due primarily to ongoing labor market strength. At a reading of 96.0, June consumer confidence would be down from its post-recession January 2015 peak of 103.8, but only 2.4 points below its 2001 to 2006 average.”
“Last Friday, University of Michigan consumer sentiment registered a June reading of 96.1, which is nine points above its long-term average.”
“If the economy’s growth rate strengthens to 3%-plus in the second half of this year, both the Conference Board and University of Michigan series should make new cyclical highs.”
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