Macro $BTCUSD thoughts.

Macro $BTCUSD thoughts.

Bitcoin / Dollar BITSTAMP:BTCUSD

Was giving the long term picture some consideration in view of RSI dropping to a level that has held well since Sept 2015. Question is, if you compare with 2014 (which seems to be what everyone else is doing) we can be at either of those points on the purple lines.

If we are indeed heading to $4000 this would represent a much more accelerated pattern within this long term trend. Comparing to 2014 though, the first March break of RSI 43 would afford us a rise of up to 100% before full retracement to the lows (whatever that might be). On the second scenario of August it would signal the start of the drawn out drop in price and rise to all time highs again.

The second scenario would suit the current pattern much better, but this would mean our bottom would be circa $5500… A lot to ponder, and possibly a long time to keep pondering since this looks like it may take a while, possibly not reaching a reversal until the end of this year or beginning of 2019.

Thoughts anyone? Any dissenting views? I know no one can predict the future but understanding other traders/trodlers thought process comes a long way to getting there.