Retail sales came out stronger than expected at 0,9% m/m, s.a. Nordea was 0,6%, consensus was 0.5%.Retail sales dropped by 0,7% in January, but the drop is reversed with today’s strong figure. Is does however not change the fact that the trend in retail sales is weak, pointing only slightly upwards. The figure is however somewhat reassuring. So far it seems like consumption is not slowing significantly after the drop in oil prices and cool down in the oil industry. The developments stand in contrast to consumer confidence figures which have fallen back to 2009 levels.Registered unemployment including those on labour market measures increased by 300 persons in March well below consensus forecast. Registered unemployment is increasing at the moment, but the increase is very moderate. Unemployment is only 1 700 persons above the level at the end of 2014. Today’s figure was on the strong side to Norges Bank’s forecast.Nordea says after the rather sharp rise in LFS unemployment published earlier this week today’s registered unemployment gives a much more positive picture of the labour market. “We and Norges Bank gives more weight to short term movements in the registered unemployment which is less volatile. Still there is now a clear difference in trend with LFS unemployment having increased quit strongly the last year while registered unemployment is little changed”, added Nordea. “Norges Bank showed in March that they are patient with cutting in rates and as long as we do not see any major impact of lower oil price in key figures we think they will cut rates in June rather than May”, Says Nordea
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