What else could we use for today…
November was quite a month…
- Russell 2000 +11% – best since October 2011
- Dow +5.5% – best since March 2016
- US Financial Stocks +14% – best since April 2009
- Goldman Sachs +23% – best since December 2000
- US Energy Stocks +9% – best since October 2015
- FANG Stocks -6.2% – worst since March 2014
- "Most Shorted" Stocks +11% – best since September 2010
- US Treasury Bonds (TLT) -8% – worst since January 2009
- Treasury 'VIX' +18% – worst since January 2015
- Emerging Market Bonds -4.7% – worst since May 2013
- Risk-Parity Funds -3.1% – worst since December 2015
- USD Index +3.8% – best since September 2014
- Mexican Peso -8.6% – worst since May 2012
- Japanese Yen -8.9% – worst since August 1995
- Chinese Yuan -2% – worst since December 2015
- Emerging Market FX -4.5% – worst since May 2012
- Gold -8% – worst since June 2013
- Silver -8% – worst since May 2016
- Copper +19% – best since March 2009
- BIS "Fear' Index (Global Basis Swap) -3bps – worst since Feb 2016
So let's start with stocks…
Despite all the exuberance over oil and macro data today, stocks were not loving it…
S&P 500 2,200 was defended once again…BUT FAILED…
Nasdaq barely eked out a green close in November as Small Caps and Trannies exploded higher…
Futures show the real craziness…
FANG stocks were really ugly…
Banks led the charge (along with energy stocks)…
The Dow gained 1000 points in November (only the 4th month ever) but we note that 28% of that move was thanks to Goldman Sachs…
In fact, just 5 names – GS, UNH, CAT, JPM, IBM – account for 50% of Dow gains
Global bonds had an ugly month…
But US Treasuries underperformed…
Since Thanksgiving yields are now unchanged thanks to a notable sell off early today. The nominal selloff deepened in early U.S. trading after Mnuchin on CNBC said U.S. will explore “extending the maturity of the debt”; asked whether 50Y or 100Y bonds would be considered, he said everything would be looked at. 30Y yield rose as much as 14bp to within 1bp of its YTD high
Comments were credited with pushing 5s30s curve from session low ~115bp to ~122bp in just over an hour…
Still decoupled from bank stock…
The USD Index spiked today driven by a collapse in AUD, EUR, and JPY….Notably the USD buying ended when Europe closed.
On the month, Yen was the hardest hit (down over 9%) but Cable rallied against the strong greenback…
Of course the biggest news of the day was the massive explosion in crude oil prices (soaring 10% to within 10c of $50)…
But given that the market got more than it expected, and closed back below $49, one wonders if the squeeze is over…
And finally, it does make you wonder if any of that buying was real or just algos playing catch up…
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