After recording a surplus in the first two months of the year, New Zealand non-seasonally adjusted trade balance (23.45 BST Tuesday) probably swung back into deficit in March, to the tune of around $100m. After seasonal adjustment, the deterioration should be even larger, from a deficit of $377m in February to around $700m in March. Capital Economics said – “We expect that the lagged effect of the previous decline in dairy prices will contribute to an outright fall in seasonally-adjusted export values.”Meanwhile, despite a price-related drop in oil imports, overall imports probably rose.

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