FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that over the next month, we see scope for NZD/USD to rise above 0.6900, helped by a decent NZ economic data pulse and a contrasting soggy US data pulse.
Key Quotes
“The stall in dairy prices last week only slightly damaged the NZD and it has managed to remain inside a 0.6700-0.6900 consolidation range. The RBNZ may give the NZD a slight lift this week within that range.”
“This week’s key NZ event will be the RBNZ’s OCR Review (Thu). Governor Wheeler will probably restate the policy elements of his speech on 14 October – a hawkish shift from Sep, where he signalled one more rate cut to 2.5% is planned, but also that the buoyant housing market and the need to retain emergency policy ammunition warranted caution.”
“3 months ahead: Multi-month, we see the NZ economy slowing, the RBNZ easing in December, and the Fed possibly tightening during the next few months; taking NZD/USD to 0.62. That said, any further delays in Fed tightening will cast doubt on our forecast decline in the NZD/USD.”
“1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)