The Philippines will release February trade data on 28 April. A small trade surplus of USD 100mn is expected , versus the USD 750mn deficit in January, which translates into a smaller contraction of 6.6% y/y, versus 14.2% in January. This is likely due to a favourable base effect. Import growth was probably dragged down by lower energy prices, which reduced energy imports. Standard Chartered notes :
- we expect electronic-goods imports to increase by double digits for a third consecutive month, and to continue their strong performance.
- We expect the trade balance to benefit from lower import growth, although sluggish export growth may constrain the upside near-term.
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