500 Dow points… on an expected outcome? “That escalated quickly…”
Since The Dems were confirmed as taking the House last night, the dollar is down but bonds, stocks, and gold are all higher…
NOTE the odd panic bid in stocks at 3am.
After two afternoon sessions of recovery gains, China dumped into its close…seemingly unimpressed with Trump holding on to the Senate…
European stocks surged at the open and held gains (no extended push though)…
US Futures show a surge at Asia open, European open, and US open… (Dow futs 650 point ramp off overnight lows)
And a non-stop bid during the day session… Nasdaq’s 2.4% surge was impressive to say the least… (UNH provide 75 of the Dow’s points gain)
The Nasdaq Composite is up over 2%, yet only 62% of stocks in the index are higher, below the readings seen during October’s snap-back rallies. Another factor that suggests a lack of verve is the percentage of volume in advancing stocks on the NYSE
Strong bid all day…
But another super-low volume day…
Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all surged to or above key technical levels…
Healthcare led the markets (Obamacare handouts for all) and Tech and Consumer Discretionary
FANG Stocks soared…finally filling the gap-down-open from Oct 26th…
AAPL was panic-bid all day (all hail the end of blackouts) – up 3%! to perfectly top sits 100DMA…
After 22 days of inversion (longest streak since 2011), the VIX term structure normalized today (barely)…
Abysmal Long Bond auction (2.3bps tail) sparked some ugliness in Treasuries in the afternoon…
But the 30Y still ended the day lower in yield (so not exactly reflective of the exuberant risk-on appetite in stocks…
But.. we note that this looks more like an equity catch up, yield catch down from early November’s derisking…
The dollar was swinging around like a penny stock on Midterm elections before everyone settled on the Dems taking the House and that sparked the selling…
And amid all that chaotic dollar movement – yuan went nowhere…
Cryptos managed to hold the week’s gains…
From Europe’s open, commodities slid lower as the dollar limped off its lows…
WTI Crude was ugly – tumbling after the inventory data… Oil is down 8 days in a row – the longest streak since July 2014.
Once again Gold was rebalanced back to 8500 Yuan overnight…
Finally, we note that Inflation Breakevens have decoupled from Oil’s collapse…
Who’s right?
It’s amusing that pundits are talking about market implications from a political event that consensus had bang-on: a congressional split that’s happened every time in the past 18 midterms after a presidential sweep. Immigration, trade, and Fed policy all unaffected by the results
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) November 7, 2018
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