Activity took a hard hit in the first quarter of 2015, and the growth rate was barely positive (+0.2%, quarterly annualised rate). Temporary factors (weather, strikes) helped slow down activity, which tends to be soft at the beginning of the year. The bad performance in Q1 has to be nuanced. But it should not be shrugged off, as more lasting brakes were at play: the steep appreciation of the dollar and the fall in oil prices. BNP Paribas says – “Fundamentals remain positive, and the US economy will undoubtedly keep on growing firmly. This does not mean the rebound will be particularly marked in Q2. The pace of the recovery will depend on households. To that matter, the labour market is crucial.”
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