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China A50 FTSE futures down by 0.12% ahead of Shanghai

China futures (A50 FTSE – benchmark for investors to access the China domestic market through A Shares – ) is trading down by 0.12% ahead of the Shanghai cash open.

China futures (A50 FTSE – benchmark for investors to access the China domestic market through A Shares – ) is trading down by 0.12% ahead of the Shanghai cash open.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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Aussie multi-data preview: what to expect in AUD/USD?

FXStreet (Guatemala) – AUD/USD settled into a phase of consolidation after yet another surge higher, but this time to challenge the 0.72 handle. For today, Australia releases retails sales along with the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).

The upside int he Aussie is not quite organic. The greenback is well and truly out of favor across the board amidst growing concerns as the year gets under way that the Fed may not be in a position to continue gradually hiking rates while data beyond the jobs market disappoints. Tomorrow, however, nonfarm payrolls will be released and has the potential to be a big impact event.

“Consumer sentiment posted a reasonably solid finish to 2015 and Christmas spending plans were more upbeat than previous years. The tone from private sector business surveys however softened in Dec, though from a high level. Nominal sales are on track for a 1.4% q/q gain in Q4, up from 0.9% in Q3. The detail from the Q4 CPI report points to a 0.5% rise in retail prices, which would see a 0.9% q/q gain in real retail sales. There is some risk around the price-volume split for the quarter as the CPI detail showed a surprisingly strong 7.4% jump in tobacco prices.”

The RBA’s SoMP could offer added dovishness to the scene after the RBA’s recent meeting and rhetoric noting potential negative impact from abroad. However, it is unlikely that there will be any great surprises outside of what we already got from Stevens’ statement of late.

Meanwhile, for today, we have Australia retail sales and RBA’s SoMP both at 11:30am Syd/8:30 Sing/HK. Both are key and also have the potential to be big impact events. Westpac’s forecast of another solid 0.4% m/m gain in Dec is in line with consensus.

“The governor’s statement on Tuesday was quite clear around inflation and the global financial backdrop. There were some hints they would be nudging their CPI forecast for the year ended Jun 2016 lower from 1.5-2.5% but this should have limited policy implications,” explained the analysts at Westpac.

RBA needs to remain vigilant

Meanwhile, as elaborated on recently, there have been some conflicting outlooks for the Australian economy. The nation has not been in a recession for nearly 25 years, but according to Australian Bureau of Statistics, there was a surprisingly sharp contraction in third-quarter business investment and shows that the nation has fallen into a pattern of weak aggregate demand and excessive corporate savings that are not being reinvested in additional capacity or productivity enhancement. The RBA indeed needs to remain vigilant.

Key levels to monitor in AUD/USD

AUD/USD has flown through key levels and is embarking on a full retracement of the 2016 downtrend above the convergence of the 100 and 55 dma at 0.7143 today having scored a high of 0.7242 and almost a full cent higher. On a continuation of the uptrend, the 200 dma at 0.7328 stands as the key objective beyond the 2016 January starting point of 0.7301. to the downside, the pivot is at 0.7124 ahead of S1 at 0.7058, S2 at 0.6936 and S3 at 0.6870.

Nonfarm Payrolls: Expect another round of dollar sell-off

AUD/USD settled into a phase of consolidation after yet another surge higher, but this time to challenge the 0.72 handle. For today, Australia releases retails sales along with the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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Weekly analysis- Forex Fundamental Analysis – Buy S&P500 and sell XAU/USD

Forecast for 1-5 February trading week

XAU/USD:

In January the precious metal was closed in “green zone” and it proved a consistent pattern, which we discussed in webinar. However, the reason for further optimism is sufficiently small. Firstly, in the first month, the yield on 10-year government bonds of G-7 showed a significant decline. The main outsider were US bonds, they decreased by 34 points. At the meeting held last week, the Fed and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and monetary control, both reported a decline in short-term inflation expectations due to low energy prices. In this regard, investors have no need to hedge against inflation risks through the gold, which is a negative factor for the stock. You can not ignore the increase of “appetite for risk”, which is also traditionally a negative effect on the value of gold, as the precious metal is seen by investors as a “safe haven.” At this background, you had better open short positions with XAU/USD at 1124/1131 levels and fix a profit at 1098 level.

XPT/USD and XPD/USD:

During the week, we should expect the development of the side trend for platinum group metals. On the one hand, the demand for “risky assets”, which is observed in the last eight trading days, is a positive factor for industrial metals. Current levels of both metals are in the area of multi-year lows, and this situation is attractive for opening long positions. On the other hand, the top three world leaders in car sales showed slowdown growth in 2015. And if China and the US increased sales by 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively, the Japanese showed the worst results – sales fell by 10.3%. It is worth noting that in 2014 the leading trio showed growth rate of 9.9%, 5.95 and 3%, respectively. Among the best-selling models in the world Toyota Corolla still holds the palm. Since the automotive industry makes it the main demand for platinum group metals, the slowing down of growth in car sales is always a negative factor for the stock of platinum and palladium. Thus, as soon as “risky assets” demand comes to an end, we will see downward trend at this metals charts. Against this background, we should expect the flat for XPD / USD within a range of 850 -900, and the flat for XPD / USD within a range of 480 -520.

S&P500:

During the week you had better open Buy position on pullbacks for three reasons. First, the leading US corporations demonstrate moderately positive quarterly reports, which can reassure the “bulls” to build up long positions. Such corporations as Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Facebook for the reporting period to increase their profits, but decline in earnings calls into question medium-term corporate bonds. However, in the short term it is a positive factor for the stock market. Second, the yield 2-year US government bonds, which reflected expectations for Fed rates, last week fell by 10 basis points, as a whole in January the decline was 29 bp. This dynamic signals that the Fed will not raise interest rates at a meeting on March 16, which is also a positive factor for the stock market. Third, the last day of January, the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate, which can help to increase the carry trade operations on the cheap liquidity background. This is also a positive factor for the “risky assets”. Against this background, you had better open long positions on S&P500 at 1925/1905 levels and fix prices at 1955 level.

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Weekly analysis- Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Weekly review: S&P500, Brent, Gold

S&P500
Monthly chart: the index “bounced” from the bottom Bollinger band but it barely changes the full tendency for the reverse down.

Weekly chart: strong resistance in the zone of the middle Bollinger band (2004.1), we wait for the…

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Weekly analysis- Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Gold, Silver, Oil Weekly Analysis

Gold weekly Review:

Weekly Review:
 
During the previous trading week, gold markets traded long and even ended up breaking the key resistive level $1100. From the current chart structure and setups, the demand for gold is still by far much s…

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