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US Dollar threatens 96.00, 4-month low

The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index, is rapidly losing ground on Tuesday, challenging the critical support at the 96.00 handle.

US Dollar lower on sentiment

The index is dropping to levels last seen in late October around the 96.00 mark as the selling pressure is quickly building up around USD. In addition, yields in US Treasuries are trading deep into the red territory, with the 10-year benchmark receding further and hovering over 1.70%.

Fanning the flames, prices for the West Texas Intermediate have breached the $30.00 mark, fading last week’s spike to the mid-$33.00s.

Second tier releases in the US economy showed the NFIB Business Optimism index coming in short of expectations, while Wholesale Inventories and API’s report on crude stockpiles are due later.

US Dollar levels to watch

The index is down 0.69% at 96.08 facing the next support at 95.43 (76.4% Fibo of 93.86-100.60) followed by 94.19 (low Sep.18 2015) and finally 93.86 (low Oct.14). On the other hand, a break out of 96.93 (200-day sma) would aim for 97.50 (high Feb.8) and then 97.87 (100-day sma)

The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index, is rapidly losing ground on Tuesday, challenging the critical support at the 96.00 handle…

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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BRC and KPMG sales monitor: U.K. retail sales rise by an annual rate of 2.6% on a like-for-like basis in January

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG sales monitor, the U.K. retail sales increased by an annual rate of 2.6% on a like-for-like basis in January, after a 0.1% rise in December. On a total basis, retail sales climbed 3.3% year-on-…

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Gold: Bulls back in the business, eyes $1200 mark

The bid tone around Gold gathered pace amid European stock market sell-off, with prices eyeing the USD 1200 mark again.

USD index slides, gold strengthens

The metal received a boost from the 0.4% slide in the USD index. The risk-off in the European equities and the resulting drop in the US index futures triggered a buying interest in the safe haven yellow metal.

However, some amount of caution can be expected on the part of the bulls, since the metal has gained more than $100 in last one month and appears overbought as per chart study.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1200, above which prices could target 1205.80 (June 18 high). On the other hand, a break below 1183.00 (Oct 28 high) would expose 1174.50 (previous day’s high).

The bid tone around Gold gathered pace amid European stock market sell-off, with prices eyeing the USD 1200 mark again.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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GBP/USD retreats from highs, tests 1.4400

The sterling is now losing its shine, prompting GBP/USD to deflate from session highs in the 1.4480/90 band.

GBP/USD choppy, capped near 1.4500

The pair has been trading in response to the alternating risk trends, meandering between a 100-pip range and with the upside limited near the 1.4500 handle. In the meantime, the risk aversion seems to have returned to the markets, prompting European equities to intensify their daily losses and spot to test lows in sub-1.4400 levels.

Data wise in the UK, the trade deficit has come in better than expectations at £9.91 billion during December. In the US, NFIB’s Business Optimism index dropped to 93.9, while Wholesale Inventories and the API’s weekly report on crude oil stockpiles are due later.

GBP/USD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is losing 0.13% at 1.4408 with the next support at 1.4353 (23.6% Fibo of 1.5240-1.4079) followed by 1.4147 (low Jan.29) and then 1.4079 (low Jan.20). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.4670 (high Feb.4) would aim for 1.4694 (55-day sma) and finally 1.4796 (61.8% Fibo of 1.5240-1.4079).

The sterling is now losing its shine, prompting GBP/USD to deflate from session highs in the 1.4480/90 band…

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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Wave analysis – We are expecting extension of the third impulse wave

GBPUSD – Flat

Pound starts rapidly changing direction from bull to bear and inversely again.

This time we expected small correction decrease but in fact price practically reaches wave spike i and all wave constriction looks like zigzag.

Perhaps we observe extension of the iii wave and this is the first wave in this limits.

In this case it is possible to buy with stop loss on local minimum and change stop level to breakeven if the situation turn to positive way.

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Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Waiting for continued decrease

USDJPY – Down

Daily chart: bear pressure from ADX increase, so it is possible to breakthrough support level on 115.32

Н4: localize support is on 115.44 and inside bar is on bottom Bollinger band. This is fact for bulls but we observe that ADX is in active zone so breakthrough under is possible too. (Look at the black pointer).

Н1: it is so prevail bear trend

Expectation: decrease by 115.00 and then correction

Trading decisions: sell by 115.00

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UK: EU membership too close to call – Lloyds Bank

Research Team at Lloyds Bank, notes that in the UK, David Cameron’s draft for a new settlement with the EU saw much media and political furore, as well as scrutiny from the business community.

Key Quotes

“But much like the public, it appears investors didn’t know what to make of it, with the announcement prompting little market reaction. The potential implications have been further complicated by hints that the PM is considering a ‘bill of rights’ that would give the UK parliament supremacy over EU law.

As they stand, we doubt the proposals will change the minds of that third of the electorate that is firmly in favour or the third that is firmly against EU membership. That leaves the undecided third to continue to confuse the pollsters, who have so far been unable to agree on the referendum’s outcome. The most recent show the net balance of those in favour of staying in Europe range from -9 to +20ppt.

The PM is due to travel to Hamburg on Friday to continue the negotiations ahead of the key EU Summit on 18-19 February. Chancellor Merkel’s support will be crucial. If all goes smoothly, the referendum could take place as soon as June 23 – a welcome prospect as uncertainty in the meantime risks putting the pound under renewed pressure.”

Research Team at Lloyds Bank, notes that in the UK, David Cameron’s draft for a new settlement with the EU saw much media and political furore, as well as scrutiny from the business community.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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